MLB Wednesday best bets: Astros, Verlander to heat up in Miami

Tuesday was another winning night on the diamond. We pulled out victories on two of our three best bets, pushing our record to 4-2 for the week.

Let's waste no time getting to Wednesday's plays as we look to keep the ball rolling.

Astros (-125) @ Marlins (+105)

The Astros were able to erase an early 3-0 deficit Tuesday en route to a much-needed comeback victory.

I expect them to grab another important win Wednesday night with Justin Verlander on the mound.

He enters play in arguably his finest form of the season. Verlander has conceded two runs or fewer in seven of his past nine starts, with one of the exceptions coming against the powerhouse Dodgers.

The hurler is throwing a ton of strikes and inducing a lot of weak contact, which is why he ranks third among Wednesday's starters in xwOBA over the past month.

The Marlins are a competent offensive side, but they're likely to have a tough time keeping up with an Astros attack in a much better spot.

Jesus Luzardo's season has gone off the rails. He's allowed 15 runs over his past three starts, and his control issues date back further. Excluding balls put in play, 47% of his pitches the past month have been off the plate. That's concerning.

So, too, is the contact opponents are making when Luzardo does hit the zone. His xwOBA the last month is comparable to Noah Syndergaard's, who's years past his best-before date, while Luzardo's barrel rate of nearly 11% is almost 4% above league average.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact the Astros feast on left-handed pitching. Whether you focus on recent weeks, months, or the season as a whole, Houston is near the top of the league in almost every offensive category versus left-handed arms.

If Luzardo pitches anything like he has of late, I think the Astros will get to him early and often and leave Miami with the series victory.

Bet: Astros (-125)

Justin Verlander under 1.5 walks

Verlander took advantage of a struggling Angels side in his last start, handing out zero free passes over six innings of work.

I don't know that another zero is coming Wednesday night, but I do see value on the under once again.

Verlander is littering the zone with strikes right now, throwing balls just 30% of the time over the past month. That's noticeably better than the league average of 36% and ranks him second among Wednesday's projected starters.

What makes Verlander even more attractive is his opponent. The Marlins don't walk very often, earning free passes during just 6.7% of their at-bats versus righties this season. Only the White Sox and Royals have fared worse in that regard.

Things look worse if we focus on the here and now. The Marlins own a 5.4% walk rate against righties over the past month, indicating their roster alterations at the deadline haven't translated into improved plate discipline.

With Verlander dominating the strike zone and Miami showing little patience at the plate, the recipe is there for another clean start.

Odds: +105 (playable to -125)

Paul Blackburn under 16.5 outs

Blackburn - like many Athletics - isn't having a good season. He's made 13 starts, completing six innings in just three of them while sporting a 4.52 ERA.

There isn't much reason to believe a change in fortune is coming against the Cardinals. For one, Blackburn's underlying profile is littered with red flags. Perhaps the biggest is that he can't throw strikes. Over the last month, Blackburn owns the second-lowest strike rate among Wednesday's starting pitchers.

Opposing batters are also feasting on him in that span, piling up 34 hits over five starts.

That's likely to continue against a scorching-hot Cardinals offense. St. Louis ranks third in xwOBA versus righties - behind only the Braves and Cubs - and sits fourth in contact rate over the past 30 days.

With Blackburn struggling to go the distance at the best of times, he's likely in for another relatively short outing versus a Cardinals team swinging the bat extremely well.

Odds: -105 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.