MLB Thursday best bets: Expect Rays to start fast vs. Orioles
Wednesday was another profitable night for our best bets. Although we didn't get much offense in Cincinnati, both of our pitching props came through to push our weekly record to 7-2.
We'll look to build on it Thursday with three more plays as we try to stay hot on the diamond.
Orioles (+160) @ Rays (-190)
It's no secret the Rays are in a healthy rut. They've dropped four games in a row, seven of 10, and are just 12-18 over the past 30 games. That slots them in 25th place.
The team as a whole is struggling. That doesn't apply to Tyler Glasnow, though. He's been lights out of late, allowing one run or fewer in three of his past four starts.
Glasnow is throwing a ton of strikes, limiting walks, and giving up very little dangerous contact. He owns an xwOBA of .283 in the past five starts, which is an impressive number.
The Orioles are a very dangerous team, but their offense doesn't currently profile as some unstoppable force. They slot 15th in xwOBA versus righties this month and 25th in barrel rate.
Glasnow should be able to keep the Orioles in check - at least through the first half - and put the Rays in a strong position to grab a lead.
Despite the downward trajectory the Rays are on at the dish, they still rank second in homers and fourth in batting average against right-handed pitching - and they're healthy. There are a lot of sleeping giants in their lineup we know are capable of much more.
Kyle Gibson may just be the guy to bring that out of them. He doesn't strike out many batters and has conceded three or more earned runs in six of his past seven starts.
If that trend continues today, the Rays will have a great chance of leading through five with their ace on the mound.
Bet: Rays F5 -0.5 (-130)
Pablo Lopez over 7.5 strikeouts
Lopez is a strikeout machine. He's gone over this total in four of the past six games, averaging 8.8 strikeouts per start.
His underlying numbers during this stretch are as dazzling as his counting stats. Lopez ranks second among the day's starters in strike percentage - behind only Spencer Strider - and has induced swings and misses nearly 16% of the time.
Lopez is at the top of his game right now and has the luxury of facing a Mariners team that can't stop striking out. They have the second-highest K% in the league this season and hold the same slot this month. They're not making any progress.
We targeted this same Mariners team with Kenta Maeda last night, and he soared over his total (5.5), recording nine strikeouts. I expect a similar effort from Lopez this time around.
Odds: -140 (playable to -145)
Hogan Harris over 1.5 walks allowed
Harris has shown control issues early in his MLB career. He's walked at least two batters in four consecutive appearances, handing out a whopping 13 total free passes. That's 3.25 per game.
It's not some coincidence; Harris is simply missing the plate a lot. Excluding balls put in play, 47.4% of his pitches the past month were balls, a very high percentage.
While Harris has faced some offenses that are strong at drawing walks, it's not going to get much easier for him on Thursday night.
The Astros rank top half of the league in walk rate versus left-handed pitching and very rarely strike out. They're patient and force opponents to make good pitches consistently - something Harris has struggled with.
The Athletics only got 4.1 innings from Wednesday's starter, so I expect they'll give Harris a full leash in this one. That means ample opportunity to hand out a couple of free passes.
Odds: -135 (playable to -145)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.