MLB Wednesday best bets: Another offensive explosion in Cincy?

The best bets continue to run hot. We enjoyed a perfect 3-0 night, pushing our record for the week to 5-1.

We'll look to build on a pair of strong efforts with three more plays for Wednesday's juicy card.

Giants (-120) @ Reds (+100)

We saw an offensive explosion when these two sides met on Tuesday. A whopping 21 runs were scored between the two sides without the aid of extra innings.

I'm not sure I expect that kind of output to be replicated on Wednesday, but there still appears to be value on the over.

The starting pitching matchup between Ross Stripling and Graham Ashcraft is not conducive to a low-scoring game - especially given the circumstances.

Before I get to that, let's focus on the starters. Stripling is in good form, but he hasn't completed even five full innings since early May. He doesn't go deep into games, which could be problematic, considering the Giants played 12 innings of baseball on Tuesday, which included finishing Monday's weather-delayed contest.

They needed to use six bullpen arms Tuesday night, two of whom (Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval) finished both games. The Giants taxed most of their bullpen - including double duty on two high-end relievers.

There are going to be a lot of fatigued arms. That could be a problem, given the caliber of the opposing offense, and Stripling isn't an innings eater. They're going to be relied on.

Things look even worse for the Reds' pitching situation. While Ashcraft has tightened the screws of late, we're still looking at a guy with a near 6.0 ERA squaring off against a top-10 offense.

Backing him up is an underwhelming bullpen that was overextended, with starter Luke Weaver failing to complete even three innings.

These aren't pitchers that can be relied upon for more than five or six innings, even if we see ceiling performances. If we don't, which is likely, a couple of taxed bullpens are going to be worked even further into the ground.

Expect the offenses to shine again in this one.

Bet: Over 10.5 runs (-110, playable to -125)

Jon Gray under 5.5 strikeouts

Note: Game begins at 2:05 p.m. ET

Gray hasn't exactly been a strikeout artist this season. He's averaging 7.18 strikeouts per nine innings - the lowest output of his career - and isn't fanning many batters on a game-to-game basis. Gray has registered five strikeouts or fewer in 12 of 17 starts, which equates to a healthy 71% of the time.

His game is trending further downward. He's recorded four strikeouts or fewer in five straight starts, averaging only 3.2 per game in that span. His strike rate sits below 42%, and he's inducing swinging strikes under 9% of the time over that five-start span.

Unsurprisingly, his struggles throwing strikes are leading to very concerning results. Gray has conceded 19 runs over his past five starts and has posted a putrid xwOBA of .344.

Although the Rays have struggled of late, they have a lot of weapons in their lineup, and their strikeout numbers have improved drastically over the past 10 games.

Odds: +105 (playable to -125)

Kenta Maeda over 5.5 strikeouts

Maeda is pitching very well right now. He's recorded six strikeouts or more in three of the past four games, with the exception coming against a powerhouse Braves offense.

His underlying profile during that span has sparkled. He's thrown strikes at a higher rate than all of the day's projected starters, induced swings and misses more than 16% of the time, and struck out a healthy 33% of opposing batters.

Maeda now draws a mouthwatering matchup against a Mariners team that has struggled mightily with plate discipline. They've posted the second-highest strikeout rate in the league this season and aren't showing any progress.

In fact, eight of the past 10 starters have hit their strikeout lines against the Mariners. The two exceptions both fell exactly one K short and had a real chance to get there.

Maeda isn't being given a crazy long leash - his season high is 87 pitches - but the combination of efficiency plus matchup make him very appealing in this spot.

Odds: +105 (playable to -115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.