Home Run Derby odds: Alonso jumps Vlad Jr. as favorite to claim 3rd title

AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images / Denver Post / Getty

Pete Alonso is favored over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and six other of the league's best sluggers to claim his third Home Run Derby title Monday night at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

Guerrero initially opened as the favorite, but oddsmakers have since decided Alonso should be considered the market leader as the event approaches.

Player (Seed) Odds 2023 HRs Derby Appearances
Pete Alonso (2) +300 25 3
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (6) +350 13 1
Julio Rodriguez (7) +450 13 1
Luis Robert Jr. (1) +500 25 0
Adolis Garcia (4) +800 21 0
Randy Arozarena (5) +800 16 0
Mookie Betts (3) +900 23 0
Adley Rutschman (8) +1600 11 0

The seeding, which is based on each hitter's number of home runs hit in 2023 at the time the derby field was set, creates these Round 1 matchups in the single-elimination contest:

Luis Robert Jr. (CWS) vs. Adley Rutschman (BAL)
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Julio Rodriguez (SEA)
Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
Adolis Garcia (TEX) vs. Randy Arozarena (TB)

Alonso will be up against hometown star Julio Rodriguez in Round 1 in what should be an epic rematch from last year when the Mariners' rookie crushed 31 homers in the semifinals to knock out Alonso before losing to then-Nationals outfielder Juan Soto in the final.

If Alonso goes on to win another Home Run Derby crown, he'll join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only player in MLB history to win the event three times.

Despite only having 13 home runs at the time the derby field was set, oddsmakers believe Guerrero could recreate the magical performance he put on during his 2019 debut. The Blue Jays slugger hit the most dingers in the event's history with 91 that year but came up short to Alonso in the finals, losing 23-22.

Guerrero will take on Home Run Derby rookie Mookie Betts in the first round. The winner of this head-to-head will take on the winner of Alonso versus Rodriguez in the semis.

Of the eight contestants, five of them will be making their Home Run Derby debuts.