MLB Thursday best bets: Padres to avoid sweep in San Francisco

We had a 1-1-1 day on Wednesday, picking up a win, a loss, and a void due to rain.

We'll set our sights higher for three plays on Thursday's card, including one I loved so much that I'm running it back.

Padres (-130) @ Giants (+110)

Note: this is a 3:45 p.m. ET start.

The Padres stumbled their way through the first three games of the series. They dropped all three contests, including two via walk off after blowing multi-run leads.

I like their chances of avoiding the sweep with Blake Snell on the mound in the series finale.

Snell is in remarkably strong form right now. He has posted a sparkling .241 xwOBA over the past month while striking out 38.8% of opposing batters.

He is littering the zone with strikes, inducing a lot of swing and misses, and consistently keeping the ball in the dirt. All good signs - especially against a power-hitting team like the Giants.

They're having a miserable time against left-handed pitchers this season. Their xwOBA of .292 slots them 28th in the majors, and they also rank near the basement in barrel rate. They aren't squaring up on the ball and generating much power.

Important to note, they have also struck out a lot. Their K rate against lefties of nearly 26% ranks them bottom five, keeping company with teams like the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers.

The Padres' offense - as much as it has struggled in this series - finds itself in much better position for a productive day.

They are seventh in xwOBA against lefties over the past month and only two teams have mustered up more homers.

Alex Wood owns a 4.11 ERA, a pedestrian 46% strike percentage over the past month, and routinely struggles to last more than five innings in a game.

The Padres should be able to chase him relatively early while Snell has a real opportunity to eat up a lot of innings in this spot.

Look for Snell to help guide the Padres to a much needed win.

Bet: Padres -130 (playable to -140)

Ronald Acuna Jr. over 0.5 runs scored

Note: this is a 1:05 p.m. ET start.

Nola is a very good pitcher in very good form, but I'm not sure it matters. Acuna Jr. is on a different planet from almost everybody in the league when it comes to getting on base and making his way home.

He owns a ridiculous .398 on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers this season, far and away the best output on the Braves.

He has enjoyed a ton of success against Nola in the past, too, sporting a .350 average over 47 at-bats.

No matter the opponent, Acuna lives on the bases and is a nightmare to deal with once he gets on. Only Esteury Ruiz has stolen more bases this season.

Given his ability to get on base, his speed, and all the talent around him, it should be no surprise Acuna has scored in 43 of 73 games this season.

Look for him to find home plate again in this one.

Odds: -105 (playable to -125).

Yandy Diaz over 0.5 runs scored

Note: this is a 6:40 p.m. ET start.

Diaz is a beast against right-handed pitching, especially on home soil. He owns a .327 batting average and .421 on-base percentage against righties in Tampa Bay.

On what has been the league's best team from Day 1, Diaz sits behind only Wander Franco in contact percentage while just Randy Arozarena has managed a higher xwOBA.

Diaz is an on-base machine and usually finds himself at the top of the order.

Against a bad Royals team likely to use a wide array of underwhelming arms, he should be able to get on base multiple times in this game.

I expect Arozarena, Franco, Josh Lowe, and the studs hitting behind Diaz to cash him in at least once.

Odds: -115 (playable to -125).

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.