MLB Friday best bets: Padres to start fast in Colorado
Thursday was our first off night this week. The Astros jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, but were unable to score the rest of the night and eventually fell 3-2 to the Blue Jays. That turned out to be our only play as Alex Verdugo did not play in Cleveland.
We still own a strong 7-3 record on the week, which we'll look to build on with three more plays Friday night.
Padres (-190) @ Rockies (+160)
Powered by a five-hit performance from Juan Soto, the Padres picked up a convincing 10-3 victory over the Mariners on Wednesday.
I expect them to carry that momentum forward - especially offensively - against Austin Gomber and the Rockies.
Gomber has been horrendous this season, sporting a 6.99 ERA through 12 starts. His underlying numbers are equally concerning - he carries a FIP well above 6.0 and allows hard contact nearly 40% of the time.
Although the Padres have disappointed this season, they've remained very potent against left-handed pitching. In that category, the team ranks 11th in wRC+ and fifth in ISO on the year.
Gomber has struggled against mediocre opponents - over the past four starts, he allowed 16 runs over 17 innings against the Royals, Marlins, Reds, and Mets - so there's every reason to believe the Padres can make noise against him at Coors Field.
Yu Darvish is not what he once was, but he shouldn't need to be to get a positive result. If he can hold the Rockies to two or three runs in the first half, I expect the Padres will hang onto a lead.
That's how I will be attacking this game. A pitching advantage should allow the Padres' offense - which is slowly trending upward - to grind out a lead in the best hitting environment in MLB.
Bet: Padres F5 -0.5 (-145)
Marcus Stroman over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
Averaging a healthy 4.6 runs per game, the San Francisco Giants have a very strong offense. Their power comes with a cost, though - and that cost is a lot of strikeouts.
The Giants have struck out in 25.3% of their at bats versus righties this season, which is the third-highest rate in the league. In that regard, they have shown absolutely no improvement as the season progresses. In fact, things are trending in the opposite direction.
Over the past three weeks, the Giants have struck out in a whopping 27.1% of their at bats. Not good.
Stroman is not a prolific strikeout artist, but he routinely goes over this number in much lesser matchups. He has recorded five strikeouts or more in nine of 13 starts (69%), including against teams like the Rays, Dodgers, and Rangers.
As long as he doesn't concede a lot of power early - not a huge ask considering he has only allowed 0.57 homers per nine this season - he should be able to work well into the game and pick up a handful of strikeouts.
Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases (-110)
Soto has very extreme home/road splits. His numbers (.246 average, .365 wOBA) are not all that great on home soil, which checks out when you consider Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the sport.
It has some of the worst impacts in baseball when it comes to scoring runs and generating extra base hits.
Soto's numbers on the road, though, are completely different. His batting average is approaching .300, and he leads the Padres in both wOBA and ISO. He hits the ball extremely well away from home.
On Friday night, Soto finds himself in the best hitting environment in the majors, Coors Field.
While Soto does not mash lefties, Gomber sports an ERA of nearly 7.0 and can be exploited by anybody.
Even if Soto can't get the job done against Gomber, the Padres outfielder can easily look forward to four or five innings of work against an underwhelming bullpen.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.