MLB Wednesday best bets: Expect fireworks in Cincinnati
We're off to a roaring start to the week with our best bets. We won two of three Monday night and swept the board Tuesday, soaring past the over in Cincinnati to go along with a pair of player prop victories.
We'll look to keep the train moving with a few more plays for Wednesday night's card.
Dodgers (-165) @ Reds (+145)
The Dodgers' and Reds' offenses went nuclear in the opening game of the series, combining for 17 runs in a thrilling back-and-forth affair. I'm not sure this game will reach those heights, but I expect a lot of offense again.
Both teams project very well against the pitchers they're facing. Brandon Williamson has allowed 25 baserunners over his past three starts despite not completing five innings in two of them. He's getting knocked around pretty good, and the underlying numbers over the past 30 days (5.14 FIP, 9.7% soft contact rate) indicate that it's well deserved.
Given his struggles, this is perhaps the worst opponent - and pitching environment - he could ask for. The Dodgers have destroyed lefties this season and enter Wednesday in great form. Only the Braves rank ahead of L.A. in wOBA since May 1, while nobody has touched the ridiculous ISO the Dodgers have managed (.302).
Great American Ballpark is very friendly on offenses, and Williamson is an exploitable arm facing a top-tier offense. I wouldn't be surprised if Los Angeles put up eight runs again.
The Reds are also in a good position to score their fair share of runs against Noah Syndergaard, who looks completely lost on the mound.
Syndergaard can't strike out batters anywhere close to the level he used to, and he's struggling to limit hard contact. The 30-year-old ranks second to last among Wednesday's projected starters in hard-hit rate allowed over the past 30 days.
The Reds - aided by the promotion of top prospect Elly De La Cruz - have more than enough talent to capitalize on Thor's struggles.
Look for the fireworks to continue in Cincinnati.
Bet: Over 11.5 (+100)
Will Smith over 1.5 total bases (+100)
There should be a lot of offense in the Dodgers game, and there's every reason to believe Smith will be at the forefront of it.
He's been remarkably good against left-handed pitching this season, sporting a .310 batting average to go along with a .345 ISO and .463 wOBA. The catcher is getting on base consistently and hitting for power.
Smith is generating hard contact 48.5% of the time versus lefties, which leads the Dodgers and is one of the highest rates in the league.
That spells trouble for Williamson. He's allowed a hard-hit rate above 40%, and the ball can really carry in Cincinnati.
Michael Conforto over 1.5 total bases (-115)
Conforto has some of the most drastic home/road splits in baseball. At home against right-handed pitching, he's hitting .222 with a .289 wOBA and has only one extra-base hit. Those are crazy numbers for a big-money player to possess after 23 home dates.
Part of the problem is a lack of luck. His batting average on balls put in play is unsustainably low. However, the bigger factor is that Oracle Park just isn't a hitter-friendly place to play.
Given as much, I expected Conforto's road numbers to grade out higher. The gap is almost unbelievably large.
Against righties, Conforto is hitting .289 on the road with a .329 ISO and .427 wOBA. He's tearing the cover off the baseball away from Oracle Park.
That should continue Wednesday night. Coors Field is the best place for hitters to generate offense, and Connor Seabold (5.40 ERA, 5.37 FIP) isn't exactly an arm you have to be wary against.
Look for Conforto to have a productive night at the plate.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.