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MLB Monday best bets: Dodgers to rebound vs. Nationals

Christian Petersen / Getty Images Sport / Getty

We have a jam-packed day of baseball ahead of us on this Memorial Day. Let's waste no time in getting to the best bets.

Nationals (+210) @ Dodgers (-250)

The Dodgers may have dropped two of three against the league-leading Rays, but their offense remains in fine form.

They scored 20 runs over that three-game series and sit third in the league, producing an average of 5.5 per contest.

I like their chances of staying hot at the dish Monday night against the Nationals. Tasked with slowing them down will be Trevor Williams, who seems primed for regression.

The 31-year-old righty owns a 5.36 FIP over the past 30 days and has averaged a hair under two homers per nine innings. Considering he doesn't have electric stuff, and has allowed a lot of fly balls, that's probably not a coincidence.

It doesn't bode well for his chances of success against this Dodgers team. They've been a little streaky at times, but the Rays are the only side in the league that rank ahead of the Dodgers in wOBA or ISO against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers are lethal.

They should have plenty of success against Williams - success I don't see the Nationals matching against Bobby Miller.

Miller was remarkably good in his first start, throwing six innings of one-run ball against a lethal Braves offense.

He walked only one batter and allowed fly balls just 14% of the time. The latter isn't sustainable, of course, but a strong ground-ball rate goes a long way towards limiting the damage opposing offenses can muster up.

Of the Dodgers' last 12 wins, 10 have been by multiple runs. Look for them to flex their muscles and make that 11 for 13.

Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

Will Smith over 1.5 total bases (+110)

Smith is a monster against righties, particularly when playing at Dodger Stadium. He has destroyed right-handed pitching in Los Angeles this season, mustering up a .438 wOBA and .354 ISO to date. Both outputs comfortably lead a Dodgers team loaded with firepower.

What I love about Smith is all of the numbers beneath the hood look very promising. He has not benefited from unsustainable luck at the dish - his batting average on balls in play is only a little above league average - and he hasn't struck out often.

He is consistently making good contact on the ball and putting it in play. That's a recipe for success.

As mentioned, Williams has pitched worse than the numbers suggest of late. His FIP is high, and he is prone to giving up the long ball. There's a very real chance Smith can get ahold of something and go over the number before Williams leaves the game.

Ronald Acuna Jr. over 1.5 total bases (-110)

There's a case to be made for Acuna as one of the best - if not the best - hitters in the league away from home. He has absolutely teed off on righties outside of Truist Park.

Through the first couple months of the season, he has mustered up a .482 wOBA and .350 ISO away from home. Insane numbers.

While Oakland isn't the most hitter-friendly destination in terms of ballpark factors, the Athletics are a dream opponent for anybody.

Their starting pitching is horrendous - today a rusty Paul Blackburn will make his first start of the season - and the bullpen is even worse. They own a FIP above 6.0, which is more than a run clear of the next closest team.

If Acuna is unable to get the job done in the two or three at-bats against Blackburn, the league's worst 'pen is waiting for him. Expect another productive night at the plate from Acuna.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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