MLB Monday best bets: Back Ohtani, Angels in Baltimore

We have a juicy 12-game slate to begin the week. Let's waste no time in getting to the standout plays.

Angels (-135) @ Orioles (+115)

It's Shohei day! The international superstar will take the mound against an impressive Orioles team that's tied with the Dodgers for second in wins.

The Orioles are tough to deal with at the plate and on the basepaths, but I like Ohtani's chances of doing so.

He's in incredible form, even by his usual standards: He owns a 2.70 ERA and his underlying profile is near spotless across the board. His expected ERA sits at 2.74, he is inducing a ton of grounders (and soft contact), and he's striking out nearly 13 batters per nine innings. Remarkable.

As terrifying as this Orioles offense is on paper, it hasn't been in reality - at least not of late. Over the past couple of weeks, the Orioles rank 25th in wOBA (.288) against right-handed pitching. They slot below teams like the Tigers and Athletics in that time. Not ideal.

While it's always possible for Baltimore's offense to come alive, this does not seem like a good matchup for that to happen.

It's also worth noting that the Angels' offense is in a sneaky-good spot. Grayson Rodriguez is a very talented kid, but he is far from a polished product. He is allowing upward of two homers per nine innings, which is no coincidence since he's allowed hard contact nearly 40% of the time.

The Angels have a lot of pop in their lineup - Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe and, of course, Ohtani come to mind - and are more than capable of capitalizing on Rodriguez's growing pains.

I really like this Orioles team, but the Angels' offense is in better form - at least against righties - and has one of the league's best pitchers on the mound. With advantages at the dish and on the mound, the Angels are worth backing Monday night.

Bet: Angels (-135)

Shohei Ohtani over 6.5 strikeouts (-132)

This is a bit of a correlation play. If the Angels are to win Monday, their ace will likely record a quality start.

Ohtani owns an insane K rate, sitting down more than 36% of the batters he faces. That's by far the highest output among Monday's projected starters, with Twins ace Pablo Lopez (31%) the only other one above 29%.

As we mentioned, the Orioles are not hitting righties well. Their wOBA is down, their batting average is down, and they are striking out quite frequently. They own a K rate of 23.5% over the past couple of weeks, which is higher than all but seven teams league-wide.

Ohtani has gone over this total in four straight starts and six of eight for the season. He's in a good spot to get the job done once again.

Ozzie Albies over 1.5 total bases (-110)

Death, taxes, and Albies versus lefties. Among 198 batters with at least 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching, the Braves second baseman ranks third with an absurdly high wOBA of .541. He is hitting for a ton of power, too, sporting an ISO above .410.

In terms of standard numbers, Albies is hitting .431 with four doubles and five homers through just 51 at bats. Nearly 20% of his ABs have led him to clear his total bases on one swing.

Albies will face an inexperienced lefty in Cody Bradford, freshly recalled by the Rangers. Expect him to take advantage.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.