MLB Wednesday best bets: Rays a nightmare matchup for Orioles' Kremer

We have a whopping 15-game slate ahead of us Wednesday. Let's waste no time in getting to our best bets.

Rays (-120) @ Orioles (+100)

I always enjoy backing the Rays. I especially enjoy it when they're hovering close to even money, which is the case in Baltimore.

While the Orioles are a good team, they lag well behind the Rays in pretty much every category.

The Rays lead the league in average, on-base percentage, slugging, and homers while also doing a better job than anybody in preventing runs, baserunners, and homers. They're incredible.

I think Dean Kremer is going to have a miserable time slowing the Rays down. He owns a 5.80 ERA and 5.40 FIP and is allowing upward of two homers per nine innings of work.

Kremer has a high home run per fly ball rate, which should be music to the ears of Rays batters. Nearly 18% of the fly balls they've generated against right-handed pitchers have gone yard, the third-highest rate in the league.

That doesn't bode well for Kremer, particularly in a hitter-friendly park like Camden Yards.

Kremer's pitching profile doesn't give him a great chance of slowing the Rays down, either. He throws four-seam fastballs more than 50% of the time.

Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, and Yandy Diaz, among others, own .450 wOBAs or higher against that pitch.

This seems like a very advantageous matchup for Tampa Bay's offense. If the lineup does what it's capable of, the Orioles will have a tough time keeping up against the Rays, who are better than anybody at preventing runs.

Justin Steele under 5.5 strikeouts (-120)

Steele has gone under this total in five of seven starts for the Cubs this season. The two exceptions came against the Dodgers and Brewers - two top-15 offenses in terms of run generation.

That may seem like a feather in the cap for Steele, who now draws the 13-24 Cardinals. I'm not so sure that's the case.

The Dodgers and Brewers have been very strikeout-prone this season, especially against left-handers. No team has a higher K rate versus lefties than the Brewers, while the Dodgers (fourth highest) are not far behind.

St. Louis' offense profiles much differently. They rank 11th in wOBA against left-handed arms and are striking out only 22% of the time, slotting them 5% and 8% below the Dodgers and Brewers respectively.

I expect a quality start from Steele, who has been one of the better pitchers in the league this season. I'm not so sure it'll come along with a healthy batch of strikeouts.

Seth Lugo over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)

Lugo is off to a very strong start in San Diego. He has averaged 5.2 strikeouts per game and has gone over this total in five of six. I expect him to keep that streak alive Wednesday against the Twins.

The Twins are hitting for good power right now. They can't get on base, though, and are striking out a lot. They own a 26.2% K rate (third highest) against right-handed pitchers over the past two weeks. Only the Mariners and Athletics have fared worse.

With the Twins chasing power so heavily and several strikeout-prone players expected to start - Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor, and Byron Buxton among them - there are plenty of strong strikeout targets for Lugo to make his way through.

Even if Lugo allows a long ball or two, he should be able to pick up five strikeouts before exiting.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.