MLB Wednesday best bets: Blue Jays to take rubber match in Houston

We have a light night of baseball ahead of us; only four games are scheduled for the evening slate.

Luckily, a couple plays on the board still stand out. Let's take a closer look.

Blue Jays (+100) @ Astros (-120)

There was a lot of concern about Jose Berrios heading into the season and his first few starts didn't do a whole lot to ease that - at least on the surface. He's conceded 13 runs through three starts and has yet to pitch six innings into a game.

That's left many observers thinking "here we go again," but Berrios' numbers beneath the hood actually look quite promising.

He has struck out batters at a healthy 27% clip, he's not handing out many free passes, and his FIP of 2.36 is night and day to his ERA (7.98). What has hurt Berrios is batted-ball luck, or a lack thereof. Opponents are hitting .420 against him on balls put in play.

That's insanely high and well above the expected average of about .275. It's even more absurd when you factor in the quality of defense behind him. The Blue Jays are a very good fielding team; if anything, we should expect them to shave off the BABIP by taking away hits. But somehow, that's not what we're seeing.

Berrios has pitched a lot better than his results indicate, and most recently, he looked very good against the league-leading Rays.

The Astros possess a lot of talent at the top of the lineup, but there isn't much depth behind it. Almost everyone slated to hit five through nine owns a sub-.300 OBP. The potential absence of Yordan Alvarez due to injury would certainly make life a lot easier for Berrios.

On the flip side, it's a good spot for the Blue Jays' bats to do some damage. Luis Garcia has experienced similar struggles to Berrios in the early going. The difference is that the underlying metrics suggest it's deserved and Garcia simply isn't pitching well.

The Jays rank top five in batting average and seventh in wOBA against righties. They're not an offense you want to see when you're going through a tough time.

Look for the offense - and perhaps some positive Berrios regression - to lead the Jays to another victory in Houston.

Bet: Blue Jays (+100)

Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Judge has gone a little cold at the dish, recording just two hits over the last six games. He has a great opportunity to get back on track Wednesday night against Griffin Canning and the Angels.

Canning is primarily a fastball and slider pitcher, throwing the four-seamer nearly 41% of the time and the slider at a 27% clip. Combined, that accounts for almost seven of every 10 pitches.

It just so happens Judge destroys both types. Last year, Judge posted a .504 wOBA and 69.7% hard-hit rate against fastballs. Nobody in baseball was better. Although his numbers against the slider were not as good, they were still excellent: He posted a wOBA of .406 and hit the ball hard better than 52% of the time.

Judge won't stay quiet forever. He profiles extremely well against Canning's repertoire and Yankee Stadium is a very hitter-friendly ballpark. This is a good spot for a breakout.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.