MLB Wednesday best bets: Phillies to start strong in Atlanta
We had a very good day on the diamond Tuesday as the Los Angeles Dodgers came through on the run line (+100) and Yordan Alvarez soared past the over on 1.5 total bases (+110).
We'll look to build on a strong start to the playoffs with two more plays for a small Wednesday slate.
Phillies (+120) @ Braves (-140)
The Philadelphia Phillies opened the divisional round with a hard-fought road victory over the favored Atlanta Braves.
I'm not so sure they're going to steal Game 2 and take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series, but I like their chances of getting off to another good start.
Philadelphia looks to have a big pitching advantage with Zack Wheeler taking the mound against Kyle Wright. The former allowed just one run over four starts since returning to the rotation, striking out 19 and walking two during a dominant stretch.
Wright really stumbled over the last month or so, posting a 5.26 ERA and 4.17 FIP. While I believe he'll rebound, this isn't the best spot for him to do so.
The Phillies rank 11th in wOBA and third in ISO against right-handed pitching over the last few weeks. They have a lot of power in their lineup and have caused Wright a lot of problems in his career.
Phillies batters managed a whopping .392 xwOBA against Wright through 84 plate appearances - small sample size, sure, but they've hit him hard.
If that continues, it's only a matter of time before they really break through on the scoreboard. If they notch a couple runs in the first half of the game, they'll be in great shape with Wheeler on the mound.
With the cushion of a push in the event of a tie, I'm happy to back the better starting pitcher - and a hot offense - at plus money.
Bet: Phillies F5 ML (+115)
Freddie Freeman over 1.5 bases (+115)
The only batter-pitcher matchup that stands out to me is Freddie Freeman versus Yu Darvish.
The San Diego Padres pitcher throws cutters and fastballs more than 60% of the time. Freeman excels against both.
We'll start with Darvish's primary pitch, the cutter. Freeman mashed those all season long, posting a ridiculous .585 wOBA and .721 SLG%. Both totals comfortably led the Dodgers.
Freeman's numbers against the fastball weren't as strong, but he still slotted third on the team in wOBA and second in SLG%.
It's also worth noting he has a .318 career batting average and a .400 career on-base percentage against Darvish.
Look for that success to continue.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.