MLB Wednesday best bets: Tigers to hang with Mariners
The marathon that is the MLB regular season comes to a close today, with a jam-packed 16-game slate all taking place in the afternoon.
Let's take a look at a couple games that stand out from the pack.
Diamondbacks (+140) @ Brewers (-165)
The Diamondbacks are limping to the finish line, having dropped three straight games and seven of the last 10 overall.
I don't see things getting better for Arizona in its season finale. Merrill Kelly and the D-Backs have a date with Corbin Burnes and the Brewers, which likely won't play out favorably.
Kelly has mostly pitched well this season, but like his team as a whole, his play has tailed off significantly down the stretch - he has conceded at least three runs in six of his last eight starts and five or more in two of the last three.
The underlying metrics suggest these blowups are no coincidence. Kelly owns a 7.15 FIP over the past month, which is dead last among the 32 pitchers expected to start Wednesday.
The Brewers are hardly a deadly offense, but they've hit righties fairly well of late - posting a .304 wOBA (16th) over the past three weeks - so they should be able to get to a struggling Kelly.
On the flip side, Burnes is pitching as well as ever, posting a sparkling 2.68 FIP and striking out nearly 30% of opposing batters over the last month of work.
Arizona has struggled to plate runs of late and sits 24th in wOBA vs. righties over the last few weeks, so this is a mouth-watering matchup for Burnes.
With nothing to play for on the last day of the season, Milwaukee may elect not to ride Burnes into the ground and make him work deep into the game. That's why I'm going to zero in on this advantageous starting pitching matchup and back the Brewers to win the first five.
Bet: Brewers F5 -0.5 (-110)
Tigers (+130) @ Mariners (-150)
The Mariners have qualified for the postseason for the first time in 21 years, so you best believe all attention and focus will go towards being ready for the series opener in just a couple of days.
With the Mariners locked into the AL's No. 5 seed and unable to move up or down, they have absolutely no motivation. I expect their lineup to reflect that.
Perhaps Seattle rests a couple of everyday players. Maybe the team tries to rest up its best relievers and use the lesser options to get through the day. Whatever the case, I do not see the Mariners going full tilt to grind out a win here.
Based on recent form, the Tigers have the starting pitcher advantage, with Tyler Alexander going up against Marco Gonzales.
The former has posted a matching 4.61 ERA and FIP over his last month of work. The latter's numbers are even less desirable, with Gonzales owning a 4.91 ERA and 6.28 FIP during that stretch.
The Mariners may have a set number of innings for Gonzales in mind and could run him deep into the game - even if he's struggling - to preserve other arms on the roster.
At +130, I'm happy to roll the dice on a Tigers team facing a Mariners roster that could be sitting key players.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.