MLB weekend best bets: Giants to win 5th straight vs. Diamondbacks
We're nearing the end of the marathon that is the MLB regular season, with this outing being the last time we'll see all 30 teams in action until 2023.
Let's dive into a couple of bets that stand out for the weekend ahead.
Diamondbacks (+115) @ Giants (-135)
Sep 30, 10:15 p.m. EST
The Giants are the hottest team in baseball, piling up four consecutive wins and claiming nine of the last 10 games to outscore their opponents by 21 runs over that span.
While the playoffs are likely not in the cards, the Giants haven't officially been ruled out, meaning a team playing at the peak of its power will be leaving no stone unturned in trying to get a win.
I think that extra motivation could be the difference-maker, with some players undoubtedly mentally checked out league-wide.
More importantly, a lot of aspects of this game favor the Giants - like starting pitching.
Alex Cobb has pitched a shutout (before leaving) in three of his last six starts and allowed more than three runs only once in that time. He owns a 3.14 ERA and 2.94 FIP over the last month, which are top-of-the-rotation caliber numbers.
The Diamondbacks should have a tough time generating offense against Cobb. Not only is he pitching lights out, but the D-Backs struggle mightily to generate offense against right-handed pitching. The team sits 24th in wOBA, 24th in ISO, and has posted the second-highest strikeout rate over the last three weeks.
The stars are aligning for another quality start from Cobb, which would put the Giants well on their way to victory.
San Francisco shouldn't have much trouble creating offense to support Cobb. D-Backs starter Merrill Kelly owns a 3.94 ERA and 5.15 FIP over the past 30 days. Chad Kuhl and Aaron Civale are Friday's only projected starters who have allowed hard-hit balls at a higher clip during that stretch.
With the Giants firing on all cylinders at the dish, they should be able to exploit Kelly in his current form.
Back San Fran to win its fifth straight.
Bet: Giants (-135)
Twins (TBD) @ Tigers (TBD)
Oct 1, 6:10 p.m. EST
Dylan Bundy and Drew Hutchison both have poor seasonal numbers, and I'm not sure they do justice for how bad of a matchup this is in its current state.
Bundy has been one of the worst pitchers in the majors throughout September, getting knocked around almost every time out. He owns a 7.06 ERA and 6.85 FIP during that stretch, indicating he's deserved the horrendous results he's garnering. What's crazy is things are seemingly still getting worse.
Bundy has allowed 17 runs over the last four starts alone while failing to make it through five innings. Making matters worse, he has gone up against some pedestrian offensive teams - a four-game stretch of the Angels, Royals twice, and Guardians is hardly nightmare fuel.
Regardless, his struggles bode well for the Tigers' chances of producing some runs.
The Twins should be able to do their fair share of damage against Hutchison. Minnesota's still generating offense even without Byron Buxton, mustering 26 runs over the last five games.
Hutchison's numbers aren't quite as bad as Bundy's, but they are still terrible: The former owns a 6.20 ERA and 6.68 FIP over the past month.
With the form both pitchers are in, there should be plenty of offense to go around.
Bet: Over (projected total: 8/8.5 runs)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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