MLB Wednesday best bets: Dodgers to rebound in San Diego
We have another jam-packed night of baseball on the docket Wednesday. Let's take a look at the best way to attack it.
The White Sox have hit a miserable rut at the worst time imaginable. Not long ago, they were in the thick of a heated race with the Guardians for the AL Central title. That race is over; the Guardians have won eight of the last 10, while the White Sox have dropped seven in a row.
Chicago no longer has anything to play for. Thankfully, the same can be said of the Twins.
With neither side having a leg up in terms of motivation, we'll focus on the matchups on hand as we would with any other game - and I prefer Chicago's side of things.
The biggest reason is a pitching advantage. Josh Winder is set to take the bump for the Twins, and he has performed terribly since returning to their rotation.
Winder has conceded nine runs and five homers in just over 14 innings of work this month. He's sporting a woeful 5.52 ERA, which is actually levels above where his FIP (7.00) suggests he should be.
Making the White Sox even more enticing is the fact Winder fares worse against righties than lefties. It just so happens the White Sox only have one natural lefty in their projected lineup.
They should be able to get to Winder in this game, which will put them well on their way to victory.
While Johnny Cueto's best days are obviously long behind him, he's pitching pretty well right now. He owns a 3.39 FIP over the past month and has walked only 5% of opposing batters during that time.
The Twins sit 20th in wOBA and 30th in ISO against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks. With Byron Buxton ruled out for the season, they're lacking power, and it shows.
Look for the White Sox to snap their losing skid.
Bet: White Sox (-120)
Joe Musgrove isn't pitching very well right now, and that's a huge concern. His FIP (4.80) over the last month is uncomfortably high and indicates he could be due for some regression.
The Dodgers, who sit third in wOBA against righties over the last three weeks, aren't a team you want to see when the numbers suggest you could soon hit a wall.
Musgrove has failed to find success against the Dodgers at the best of times. In fact, he has never won a start versus Los Angeles. He's 0-8.
The Dodgers have been especially good against Musgrove this season, dinging him for seven runs (and four homers) over just two starts. With regression seemingly coming for Musgrove, I'm not sure this is the night he's going to right the ship against the Dodgers.
On the flip side, Julio Urias is in the midst of an unbelievably good run of pitching. He hasn't conceded more than two runs since July 10. Urias has made 12 starts since then, including a couple of great ones against these same Padres.
There's value backing the Dodgers to get back in the win column.
Bet: Dodgers (-140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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