MLB Wednesday best bets: Expect fireworks in Arizona

by
Norm Hall / Getty Images Sport / Getty

We bounced back with a 2-0 night Tuesday as the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays picked up multi-run victories over their NL counterparts.

We'll look to keep the ball moving in the right direction with two more plays for Wednesday evening.

Athletics (-115) @ Nationals (-105)

The Athletics have won three games in a row, including the series opener against the NL bottom-dwellers. I like their chances of extending the winning streak to four versus Anibal Sanchez and the Washington Nationals.

The veteran righty has posted very poor numbers in August. He's winless with a 4.56 ERA, yet those stats might be flattering to his performances.

Sanchez has allowed a lot of hard contact and fly balls, while his FIP sits at nearly 7.0. If not for some BABIP luck, his counting numbers would look even worse.

I know the Athletics don't have a great offensive rep, but as I mentioned in Tuesday's preview, they've quietly hit the ball very well away from home of late.

They rank sixth in wOBA and 13th in ISO against right-handed pitchers on the road this month. Suffice it to say, they're capable of taking advantage of a struggling pitcher like Sanchez.

We saw that firsthand just a day ago when Oakland chased Erick Fedde before he could complete three innings.

Although backing James Kaprielian can be an adventure at times, he appears to have steadied the ship of late. He's conceded two runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts, and more than three only once.

Kaprielian should be able to keep the Nationals to a manageable number. Washington sits 21st in wOBA versus righties over the past three weeks.

Bet: Athletics (-115)

Phillies (-140) @ Diamondbacks (+120)

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks have combined for a whopping 35 runs through the first two games of this series.

While I'm not sure I'd expect 15-plus runs for a third straight contest, there's plenty of reason to believe we could see some more fireworks.

Bailey Falter versus Tommy Henry is by far the worst pitching matchup of the series.

Falter has managed a 3.00 ERA over the past 30 days, but an unsustainably low .167 BABIP makes him look a lot better than he is. His 4.79 FIP tells us we should expect some regression moving forward.

With the way the Diamondbacks are hitting, perhaps the fun starts Wednesday. They've scored at least seven runs in four of their last five games and rank 11th in wOBA, as well as ISO, versus lefties over the last two months. Arizona should plate its share of runs.

Philadelphia is in a great spot to do the same. Henry has posted a 4.68 FIP over the last 30 days, and he's walked batters at a high clip. Plus, only five of Wednesday's projected starters have allowed hard contact more often.

The Phillies have mashed lefties for a while now, slotting fourth in wOBA over the last two months and first in August. They should be able to get to Henry early in this game.

Expect another track meet.

Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Advertisement