MLB Thursday best bets: DeGrom to power Mets past Braves

We have a lot of day baseball on the docket for Thursday, which means a much smaller night slate than usual.

Even so, there are a couple of plays that stand out. Let's dive into them.

Mets (-125) @ Braves (+105)

The Mets have had the Braves' number of late, winning six of the last nine meetings, all by at least two runs.

With Jacob deGrom on the mound, I like the NL East leaders to make it seven wins in 10 on Thursday night.

DeGrom has not skipped a beat since returning to the rotation. Through 16 innings of work, he has conceded just three runs and six hits while striking out 28 batters.

His underlying metrics are as good or better than what we see on the surface. DeGrom has posted a ridiculous 0.72 FIP and has been in full control of the counts. He has thrown nearly three strikes for each ball, which is why his walk rate sits below 2%.

Given deGrom's form - and the fact he has allowed one run or less in nearly half of his career starts - it's safe to say he'll do his part and put the Mets in a good position to get another victory. The hitters just have to give him a little run support.

That won't be easy against Max Fried, but the Mets have enjoyed some success against him in the past. Fried has lost three of his last four starts against New York and failed to go more than six innings in three straight.

He has allowed 17 baserunners over the last 11 innings against New York and, for his career, has posted a .327 xwOBA against those on the Mets' roster.

If the Mets can score at least a couple against Fried - they've done so in five straight - and notch one or two more against the bullpen, they have a great chance of winning this game.

Bet: Mets (-125)

Nationals (+300) @ Padres (-300)

Offense, offense, offense: That's what I expect to see in this game. The Padres' lineup, in particular, couldn't ask for a better matchup.

Anibal Sanchez will get the nod for the Nationals, and he's been nothing short of terrible. He has conceded 24 runs through just 30 innings of work, and the numbers beneath the hood are just as bad.

Over the last month, Sanchez has posted a whopping 7.48 FIP. He has allowed hard contact more than 40% of the time while posting the second-highest fly-ball rate among the day's projected starters.

Giving up hard-hit balls at such a high clip while failing to keep them on the ground is a recipe for disaster against any opponent, let alone one of San Diego's caliber.

The Padres sit second in wOBA - and fifth in ISO - against right-handed pitching in August. They're really hitting righties well.

I expect the Padres to get to Sanchez early. They'll then have the luxury of working against one of the league's worst bullpens.

Only the Reds' and Royals' bullpens have posted higher FIPs than the Nationals' over the last 30 days. They also rank in the bottom half in both fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate.

Yu Darvish has pitched well of late, but the Nationals quietly rank 11th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers this month. Even without Juan Soto and Josh Bell, they're stringing together some hits.

They should be able to contribute two or three runs to this total. The Padres are positioned well to take care of the rest.

Bet: Over 8 (+100)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.