MLB Wednesday best bets: Giants to start fast vs. D-Backs
Tonight's evening slate features six fewer games than Tuesday's, but there's still plenty of value on the board.
Let's take a look at a couple games that stand out from the rest of the pack with our daily best bets.
We successfully backed the St. Louis Cardinals to win the first five innings of Tuesday's game. We're going right back to the Cardinals and Colorado Rockies today but will take a different approach this time.
Rather than a side, it's a total that stands out most; I like this game to feature more than seven runs.
These two squads have faced off four times this season, combining for 57 runs (14.25 per contest). Three of those games were played at Coors Field, but they still combined for nine runs and 22 baserunners in the exception.
Considering the pitching matchup, the total in this one feels a run short. Jordan Montgomery is a competent pitcher, but he's not a world-beater by any stretch of the imagination.
He pitches much better against lefties (.249 xwOBA) than righties (.326 xwOBA), and, well, the Rockies have a very right-handed lineup.
They also hit left-handed pitching very well. Since July 1, Colorado sits 14th in wOBA and first in hard-hit rate against lefties. The Rockies are obviously better at home than on the road, but they're still a dangerous side that's more than capable of holding up their end of the bargain in such a low-totaled game.
The Cardinals' offense appears to be in a pretty good spot - it's mashing the baseball right now. This month, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the only team in the league ahead of the Cardinals in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching.
Although German Marquez has shown signs of improvement over the last month, he still looks very hittable. He owns a 4.03 FIP and has given up more hard contact than all but one of the day's projected starters (Daniel Lynch).
Marquez is also a little worse against lefties than righties, and the Cardinals' projected lineup features four players who can hit from that side of the plate.
I'm not saying we should expect an offensive explosion or for the run total to come anywhere close to the season average between these two sides, but seven is simply too low for two solid offenses going up against mid-level pitching.
Bet: Over 7 (-110)
The San Francisco Giants are playing some of their best baseball of the season. They enter this contest having won five consecutive games and eight of the last 10 overall.
I like their chances of staying hot in this one - at least over the first half of the game.
They have a big pitching advantage with Carlos Rodon taking the bump. He's sporting a rock-solid 3.32 FIP over the last month and has struck out over 32% of opposing batters during that stretch.
He's sitting down a lot of batters without giving them the ability to put the ball in play - and he's done a good job of limiting hard contact when they do.
That should serve him well against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that hits lefties much worse away from home. Since the beginning of June, the D-Backs rank dead last in terms of generating hard contact on the road versus LHP. Rodon is in a good spot to have a strong night.
On the flip side, the Giants should be able to generate offense against Zach Davies. He enters play with a 5.25 ERA and 6.86 FIP over three starts since returning to the lineup. In that time, Davies has walked as many batters as he's struck out.
He's not pitching well on the surface, and his numbers are probably more flattering than they should be. He's benefited from an unsustainably low BABIP of .194.
The Giants are hitting the ball very well right now. They sit 10th in wOBA and sixth in ISO versus right-handed pitchers in August. Should Davies continue to struggle to locate his pitches, the Giants will cause him real problems.
Back them to start fast and win the first five innings at a reasonable price.
Bet: Giants F5 -0.5 (-135)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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