MLB Monday best bets: Offenses to heat up in Toronto
We had a tidy little weekend on the diamond, with the San Diego Padres comfortably covering the run line Friday and the Milwaukee Brewers stealing an extra innings road win Saturday.
We'll look to keep the momentum going with a pair of plays for Monday night's busy slate.
Padres (-135) @ Marlins (+115)
Remember when the Padres couldn't score runs for a few days? That feels like a lifetime ago.
San Diego has quietly won four of its last five games, scoring 39 runs during that strong stretch. That equates to 7.8 runs per contest. Pretty good!
I don't expect the Padres to touch that number against Sandy Alcantara and the Miami Marlins, but I like their chances of grabbing another win.
They've crushed right-handed pitching lately, posting a .387 wOBA (second) and .220 ISO (second) against righties in August.
Fernando Tatis Jr. or not, this lineup is loaded and well-balanced with the trade deadline additions of Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury.
San Diego should give Alcantara all he can handle. Although he's one of the better arms in the sport, his play has faded a little of late.
Alcantara owns a 3.25 ERA and 3.44 FIP while striking out just over seven batters per nine innings over the last 30 days. Those are strong numbers but don't come close to what he put up in the first half of the season.
If the Padres can tread water when Alcantara is in the game, they should be able to get to Miami's bullpen.
On the flip side, this is a good get-right spot for Joe Musgrove. He hasn't pitched all that well lately, owning a 5.09 ERA and 4.51 FIP over the last 30 days. However, it might not matter against this Marlins offense.
Miami is in absurdly poor form at the plate, posting a .265 wOBA (29th) against right-handed pitchers in August. Only the Detroit Tigers have fared worse.
Look for the Padres to pick up their fifth win in six tries.
Bet: Padres (-135)
Orioles (+135) @ Blue Jays (-155)
Offense, offense, offense. That's what we get every time the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays meet.
Runs are consistently scored in bunches between these clubs regardless of the form the bats are in heading into the game or who's on the mound.
Dating back to last season, the Orioles and Blue Jays have combined for at least 10 runs in 14 consecutive meetings, including all six matchups this year.
That streak feels unlikely to be broken in a game featuring Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Bradish.
Kikuchi is striking out batters at a pretty good clip these days. Unfortunately for him, that's still not leading to results. Kikuchi has a 5.14 ERA and 6.12 FIP over the past month despite producing an unsustainably low .212 BABIP. He's gotten lucky and still given up runs in bulk due to his inability to keep the ball inside the park.
The Orioles sit seventh in wOBA versus righties this month and have gotten to Kikuchi in both matchups this season, dinging him for nine runs over nine innings.
The Blue Jays aren't entering this contest on a high note after scoring only four runs over the past three games, but they've generally been strong in recent months.
They've also enjoyed success against Bradish this year, scoring eight runs in just over nine innings of work despite the help of only one long ball.
This contest has an underwhelming pitching matchup and takes place in a hitter-friendly ballpark against teams that roster immense talent at the plate - this one screams over.
Bet: Over 9 (-120)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.