MLB Wednesday player props: 3 power hitters worth backing
We have a jam-packed day of baseball on the docket Wednesday, with nonstop action from 1 p.m. until well past midnight.
Let's take a look at three batters in line for productive days.
Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases (+110)
Judge is almost automatic at this point. It seems like no matter what hand you throw or what pitch you target, Judge is going to get on base at a high clip. Even still, some matchups are better than others, and today's against Robbie Ray certainly classifies as favorable for the Yankee.
For one, Judge mashes lefties. He owns a ridiculous .422 wOBA and .390 ISO against left-handed pitchers on the season. Judge routinely gets on base and carries insane power.
Perhaps more importantly, Ray's go-to pitches are right in Judge's wheelhouse. Ray throws fastballs nearly 42% of the time and sliders just under 38%. Almost 80% of his pitches are one or the other, and Judge leads the league in run value created against each pitch.
Judge owns a .544 wOBA and 70.7% hard-hit rate against four-seam fastballs. He has also managed a .464 wOBA and 51.5% hard-hit rate versus sliders - still mind-numbingly good.
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases (+110)
Alvarez finds himself in a mouth-watering matchup at home against Glenn Otto. The latter is in poor form on the mound, having posted a 5.10 FIP over the last month while inducing very little soft contact.
Otto has struggled for much of the season - especially against lefties. They've posted a .369 xwOBA against him on the year.
Alvarez is dangerous in any ballpark but never better than against right-handed pitchers at home. At Minute Maid Park, he has mustered up Judge-lite numbers with a .426 wOBA and .364 ISO.
He can clear this number with one good swing.
Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 bases (+125)
Schwarber has mashed right-handed pitching in Philadelphia all season long, posting a .381 wOBA and .345 ISO.
Alcantara, while still solid, is not nearly as good against lefties as righties. That's one plus for Schwarber.
Another plus: He won't be impacted by Alcantara mixing pitches up so frequently. He's not someone who needs to sit on one particular pitch; he can hit anything. In fact, Schwarber is one of Philadelphia's leaders in run value against four-seamers, sinkers, and change-ups - Alcantara's three most common pitches.
The weather could be a factor in this one as well. It's expected to be a hot, humid day, which will help balls carry even further for power hitters such as Schwarber.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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