MLB Wednesday best bets: Cardinals to respond vs. Rockies
We split our best bets on Tuesday night. The Dodgers beat up on the Twins, but unfortunately, the Yankees couldn't find a way to steal a win on the road versus the Mariners.
Let's look at Wednesday's best bets as we set our sights on a 2-0 night.
Yankees (-130) @ Mariners (-110)
New York let us down in Seattle on Tuesday, but we're going right back to the well this evening.
We have a fun left-handed pitching matchup between Nestor Cortes and Robbie Ray. The difference is the Yankees enter play with the pitcher in better form; not to mention, they're much hotter at the plate against lefties.
Since the beginning of July, the Yankees lead the majors in wOBA (.402) and ISO (.259) against southpaws.
While the Mariners have fared well against lefties as well, their numbers don't hold a candle to the Yankees. The Mariners have a .343 wOBA (fourth) and .149 ISO (15th), putting them several tiers below New York.
That could spell trouble for Seattle, given what we've seen from each starter over the last month.
Cortes owns a 2.43 FIP over the past 30 days and has allowed a masterful hard-hit rate of 18.5%, the best among the day's projected starters.
Ray hasn't been nearly as bad as his ERA (6.72), but he hasn't pitched all that well, as evidenced by a 4.72 FIP.
A fastball-first arm like Ray is going to have a difficult time getting back on track against the Yankees. Headlined by likely MVP Aaron Judge (.544 wOBA), New York has 10 players who own a .354 wOBA or better against four-seamers.
Almost the entire Yankees roster mashes fastballs, which is ideal when going against someone who throws them more than 40% of the time.
Look for the Yankees to rebound in Seattle.
Bet: Yankees (-130)
Cardinals (-155) @ Rockies (+135)
The Cardinals were embarrassed by the Rockies on Tuesday night, losing by 11 runs to the NL West bottom feeders.
They will no doubt be looking to respond with a much better effort Wednesday night, and that should be expected.
St. Louis enters play having won eight of the last 10 games. Its offense has largely been good in recent weeks, particularly against left-handed pitching.
The Cardinals rank ninth in wOBA, eighth in fly-ball rate, and first in walk rate versus lefties since July 1. They are consistently getting on base, be it via good contact through the air or showing patience and generating free passes.
Although Kyle Freeland has done a great job of limiting runs of late, he's giving up a concerning amount of hard contact. He owns a putrid 38.7% hard-hit rate over the last month.
With all the dangerous bats in St. Louis' lineup, and Coors Field aiding balls through the air, giving up hard contact at a high rate is a recipe for disaster.
The Rockies should score as well - they're hitting lefties hard, especially at home - but Jose Quintana (3.03 FIP, 54.7% ground-ball rate over last month) seems better equipped to limit the damage.
Expect the Cardinals to grind out a road victory.
Bet: Cardinals (-155)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.