MLB Tuesday best bets: Dodgers' winning streak to hit 9
After a somewhat quiet Monday, we have a jam-packed slate of games Tuesday night.
It just so happens there is value in backing the AL and NL leaders. Let's dive into why.
Gerrit Cole got torched for 11 runs over his last two starts, including six from the Seattle Mariners last time out. Make no mistake, though: His body of work over the past 30 days is still largely encouraging.
Cole owns a 2.64 FIP and 2.00 xFIP over this past month, pitching far better than his ERA (4.50) would suggest. He has struck out nearly 36% of opposing batters, issued very few walks, and done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground.
All of that suggests his recent poor performance is a blip as opposed to a real cause for concern.
While the Mariners recently had a good night against Cole, they have largely struggled against righties in the last couple of weeks. In fact, they rank below all but the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers in wOBA versus right-handers during that time.
Away from the hitter's park that is Yankee Stadium, this is a nice-looking bounce-back spot for New York's ace.
On the flip side, the Yankees' offense appears more likely to come through against Seattle. Luis Castillo is very solid but, with a .173 average allowed and .213 BABIP, he has been a little lucky over the last month.
New York sits seventh in SLG% and wOBA against righties over the last two weeks. The Yankees should be able to muster up some runs against Castillo, who is due for some regression.
Bet: Yankees (-135)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are on a completely different level right now. They have won eight consecutive games, all of them by at least two runs.
Ryan is struggling mightily on the mound, having posted a 5.66 ERA and 5.39 FIP over the last month. He has allowed a lot of hard contact, and no pitcher projected to start today owns a higher fly-ball percentage over the last 30 days.
You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that allowing a lot of hard-hit fly balls will get you into trouble, especially against a team as loaded as Los Angeles.
Making matters worse: Ryan is an extreme fastball-first pitcher. Nearly 60% of his pitches are fastballs. That's not ideal against a Dodgers team whose best hitters - Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman - all excel against the pitch. They'll know what's coming and they'll have every reason to believe they can handle it.
This Dodgers team will likely give Julio Urias more than enough run support given his current form. He owns a 2.57 ERA and 2.72 FIP and has induced ground balls nearly 50% of the time over the last month.
I don't see Minnesota keeping up in this game.
Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.