MLB Thursday best bets: Blue Jays to get the jump on Twins
We have another full day of baseball on the docket Thursday, with games running for the better part of 12 hours.
Let's look at a couple of plays that stand out.
Nationals (+190) @ Phillies (-220)
This game is tied for the highest total on the slate, and I still think it's short. There's real potential for fireworks here.
Paolo Espino has struggled mightily over the last month, posting a 6.39 FIP - the worst among the day's projected starters. He has struck out batters at a low rate, allowed plenty of hard contact, and conceded fly balls nearly 52% of the time. That's why he has allowed nearly three homers per nine innings during this stretch.
The Phillies aren't world-beaters at the dish, but they are potent. At home, they rank 15th in wOBA versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of July. Perhaps more noteworthy, they sit ninth in ISO. They're hitting for power, which is what Espino is struggling most to suppress.
On the flip side, newcomer Noah Syndergaard has hardly been at his best of late. He owns a 4.89 FIP - compared to a 3.68 ERA - over the last month, and there are plenty of red flags in his profile.
Syndergaard has allowed a hard-hit rate of nearly 43%, which is a recipe for disaster when putting the ball in the air so frequently. In fact, Espino is the only other projected starter today with a fly-ball rate above 50% over the last month.
The Nationals' offense doesn't pack nearly the same punch without Juan Soto and, to a lesser extent, Josh Bell. Even so, they should be able to plate some runs against a fly-ball pitcher who's allowing a lot of hard contact - especially on a hot day with the wind blowing outward.
Bet: Over 9 (-105)
Blue Jays (-125) @ Twins (+105)
The Blue Jays are riding a pretty nice high right now. They've won seven of the last 10 games, they've largely hit the ball well, and Alek Manoah is hitting the bump as they look to bounce back from Wednesday's defeat.
I expect a better effort from the Blue Jays, at least in the early going of this game.
While Monoah's FIP is a little higher than his ERA over the last month, his numbers largely look stable. He's striking out batters at a good clip and has allowed hard contact just 25% of the time.
Limiting hard contact leads to few homers against, which obviously helps avoid blowup innings.
There are more underlying issues with Twins starter Sonny Gray. His FIP is 4.15 over the last month, and he has conceded hard contact 37.7% of the time, which is among the highest on today's slate.
The Blue Jays rank second in wOBA and third in hard-hit rate against righties over the last three weeks. They're not a team you want to see when allowing a lot of well-hit balls.
Back the Blue Jays to get an early jump in this one - with the insurance of a push if things are still square through five.
Bet: Blue Jays F5 ML (-125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.