MLB weekend best bets: Brewers to start fast in Boston
We have a healthy dose of games to look forward to over the next couple of days. Let's take a look at a few of the standouts.
Brewers (-165) @ Red Sox (+140)
July 29, 7:10 p.m. ET
The Milwaukee Brewers enter this contest in good form, having won five of their last six games. Friday presents a good opportunity to build on their success against the struggling Boston Red Sox.
Milwaukee is playing very well offensively - especially against right-handed pitchers. The Brewers sit third in wOBA this month, behind only the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers. They grade out even better in terms of power, sitting second in ISO.
Slowing them down will be a tall order for Red Sox youngster Brayan Bello. His major-league career is off to a rather bumpy start: he allowed 30 baserunners - and 14 runs - through just 12 innings of work.
While Bello's a much more talented pitcher than he's shown thus far, he very clearly has a lot of work to do as he adjusts to this level of competition.
Milwaukee should be able to plate a few runs in the early going of this game. I'm not sure the same can be said of Boston.
The Red Sox struggled at the dish in July, posting a .287 wOBA (23rd) against righties. It'll be difficult for them to put the pieces together against one of the league's best in Brandon Woodruff.
He's been remarkably good over the last month, striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings while sporting a 2.28 ERA and 1.94 FIP.
With him protecting any lead the offense gets, the Brewers have a great chance of leading through five innings.
Bet: Brewers F5 (-0.5)
Twins (+105) @ Padres (-125)
July 29, 9:40 p.m. ET
Joe Ryan has pitched well over the last month, but not as well as his sparkling 2.08 ERA would indicate - he's had some luck on his side.
Over that stretch, Ryan owns a 4.23 SIERA and 4.55 xFIP. He's kept his numbers down mostly due to a very low BABIP of .196. No pitcher is going to sustain that kind of number over a long body of work, especially not a fly-ball pitcher who gives up healthy contact at such a high rate.
Ryan posted a painfully high fly-ball rate of nearly 60% over the last 30 days. Over 82% of the contact made against him is medium or hard, too, so it's not like he's inducing soft blooper after soft blooper. Sooner or later, he's going to pay the price.
The San Diego Padres haven't hit the ball all that well of late, but they're generating fly balls at a high rate. They rank ninth in the majors against righties in July. If they can continue to put the ball in the air at such a high clip - this is certainly a matchup that would help matters - they're going to get rewarded.
On the flip side, the Minnesota Twins will have their hands full with Blake Snell. They're not nearly as lethal against southpaws, ranking 21st in wOBA versus left-handed pitchers over the last couple of months.
That, coupled with Snell's excellence this month (3.22 FIP, 37.5 K%), should position the Padres well to get a victory.
Bet: Padres (-125)
Mariners (TBD) @ Astros (TBD)
July 30, 7:10 p.m. ET
Assuming it's Chris Flexen versus Framber Valdez on the mound as projected, I like the Houston Astros in this game.
The Astros are hitting righties much better than the Seattle Mariners. Houston is sixth in wOBA and third in ISO against RHP in July.
In comparison, the Mariners sit 18th in wOBA and 10th in ISO. They're still competent but are lagging a little behind.
Valdez would also give the Astros a pitching advantage. He owns a 2.82 FIP and 26.5 K% over the last 30 days.
Flexen isn't up to snuff in either category, having managed a 3.79 FIP and 16.5 K% over the same period. He's giving up more contact and not keeping balls on the ground at anywhere close to the same level.
The Astros should be able to take advantage of that.
Bet: Astros ML (up to -150)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.