MLB Thursday best bets: Giants live 'dogs in Los Angeles
The MLB All-Star break has come and gone. While the regular-season schedule isn't back in full swing, we do have half of a slate to look forward to Thursday.
Let's dig into a couple of plays that stand out.
Game 2: Tigers (+135) @ Athletics (-160)
This game features two of the worst teams in MLB playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It doesn't exactly scream runs, does it?
I don't expect an offensive explosion, but I see value backing the over.
Garrett Hill has struggled through the first couple of starts of his career. The Detroit Tigers pitcher owns a 5.84 FIP and a matching ERA (5.73) despite an unsustainably low .176 BABIP against him. He's had luck on his side - to an extent - and is still getting badly hit around.
Hill is also striking out next to nobody (9.1 K%) and giving up fly balls 50% of the time, so it's no coincidence he's conceded seven runs through 11 innings of work.
The Oakland Athletics aren't exactly a terrifying offensive team, but they have some pop against right-handed pitching. They sit 19th in ISO and third in fly-ball rate versus righties in July. Oakland is getting the ball in the air consistently, which should help do some damage against Hill.
Frankie Montas is a very good pitcher in a favorable matchup. However, there are signs that regression could be coming.
His FIP (3.5) is drastically higher than his ERA (1.80) over the last month. Montas has also given up fly balls 47% of the time in that span. What's kept his numbers down is a .188 BABIP, which has helped mask some of his issues.
Again, the Tigers aren't world beaters at the plate. But the total is so low that there's almost no margin for error with these pitchers. Even the slightest step back from Montas - and two or three runs against - could be enough to get this game over the number.
Bet: Over 7 (-110)
Giants (+120) @ Dodgers (-140)
The San Francisco Giants have a pitching advantage in this game and a big one at that.
Carlos Rodon is one of the best starters in the majors and enters Thursday's game in fine form. He's posted a sparkling 1.35 FIP over the last 30 days while striking out 31.5% of opposing batters. Rodon has also done a good job of keeping balls on the ground, which will come in handy against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that possesses a lot of power.
Although the Dodgers can go off any given night, I don't see that happening against Rodon. For one, they're much better against right-handed pitching than left. Over the last five weeks, their numbers have been only slightly better than average.
Rodon has a strong (albeit small) history against them as well. Through 78 plate appearances versus this L.A. roster, he's allowed a .113 batting average, 0.167 wOBA, and an average exit velocity of just 86 mph. The Dodgers should struggle to generate offense.
The Giants appear to be in a much better spot against Mitch White. He's posted a 4.97 FIP over the last month and given up free passes more than 10% of the time. White has also allowed a lot of hard contact.
I don't think that sets him up for success against this patient Giants team. They'll wait for what they like, which shouldn't be too hard considering White throws fastballs nearly 50% of the time.
San Francisco absolutely mashes fastballs, with 10 of its regular hitters posting positive run values against the pitch this season. Its lineup could feature as many as seven players who own wOBAs of at least .400 versus four-seamers in 2022.
Look for the underdogs to extend their winning streak to four games.
Bet: Giants (+120)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.