MLB Wednesday best bets: Cubs to cool red-hot Orioles
We have a jam-packed slate to look forward to on Wednesday. As fate would have it, I see the most value with a pair of teams who own 3-7 records over their last 10 games.
White Sox (-115) @ Guardians (-105)
The Cleveland Guardians have won two of three in this important series against their division rivals.
They'll be relying on Aaron Civale to give them a quality start in their effort to take three of four. Civale should be able to provide just that - he has pitched quite well over the last month.
Civale owns a solid 3.34 FIP and has averaged upward of nine strikeouts per nine innings during that stretch. He's also done a fantastic job of keeping the ball on the ground - his fly ball rate sits at 28.6% - and limiting hard contact.
If not for an unsustainably high BABIP of .361, his ERA would look noticeably better.
Civale should be able to limit the damage against a Chicago White Sox offense struggling against righties, especially when it comes to generating power.
The White Sox sit 29th in ISO, 29th in fly ball rate, and 20th in hard hit rate vs RHP over the last couple of weeks. They're also generating free passes at a lesser rate than all but the Cincinnati Reds.
On the flip side, the Guardians profile well against Lucas Giolitto. Although a lack of luck has made him look worse than he has pitched of late, there are still concerns. He allows plenty of fly balls and hard contact.
The Guardians, who sit 11th in wOBA vs RHP over the last couple weeks, should be able to muster up enough offense to get by.
Bet: Guardians (-105)
Orioles (+120) @ Cubs (-140)
The Baltimore Orioles enter play scorching hot, having won nine consecutive games.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs have dropped five in a row and now sit bottom-five in the majors.
Despite opposite trajectories, it's the Cubs I like in this spot. Although Spenser Watkins has struggled this season, he's pitched better of late. He owns a 4.15 ERA but a 4.70 FIP and 5.37 xFIP, indicating he has performed worse than his ERA suggests.
Watkins strikes out very few batters (12.6%), walks a lot (8.6%), and he doesn't induce much soft contact (14%).
The Cubs, who sit ninth in wOBA, ISO, and walk rate vs RHP over the last two weeks should be able to take advantage of Watkins and his shortcomings.
It's a much different story for the Orioles against Justin Steele. He's pitching very well right now. Over the last month he has posted a whopping 54.4% ground ball rate, which is second-highest among the day's projected starters.
Steele has also severely limited hard contact, allowing it less than 20% of the time. Shohei Ohtani is the only pitcher hitting the bump today who has done a better job over the last month.
Clearly, Steele is in good form. The same can't be said about the Orioles from the left side of the plate. They sit 22nd in wOBA vs lefties over the last month. In that time, only five teams have struck out at a higher clip.
They still bring a power threat to the table but Steele's ability to keep the ball on the ground, and induce soft contact, should help mitigate that.
Look for the Cubs to get back on track and snap the Orioles' lengthy winning streak.
Bet: Cubs (-140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.