MLB Tuesday best bets: Braves to start fast in Atlanta

We took a small profit home Monday night, splitting our card but cashing a +110 play with the Mets.

We'll aim for more with two best bets for Tuesday night's big slate.

Mariners (-110) @ Nationals (-110)

These teams enter play on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Mariners have won eight consecutive games and hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

Meanwhile, the Nationals have dropped four in a row and sport a putrid 30-58 record for the season. Only the Athletics have been worse, and yet, it's the Nationals we are backing in this one.

Josiah Gray has quietly pitched very well over the last month. He owns a solid 3.65 FIP and has struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings. For perspective, Gerrit Cole owns a *checks notes* 3.65 FIP and has K'd 11.13 batters per nine over the same period. Gray is pitching legitimately well.

Despite their current run of success, the Mariners aren't hitting righties all that effectively; they rank 24th in wOBA versus RHP over the last couple of weeks.

In comparison, the Nationals sit 20th in wOBA versus RHP during the same period. That's nothing to write home about, but they've fared a little better than Seattle.

I think their patience at the plate could cause Chris Flexen problems. The Nationals have been drawing a ton of walks, earning a free pass more than 10% of the time over the last couple of weeks. Flexen owns a 9.1% walk rate in the past month, one of the highest among the day's projected starters.

He has also given up fly balls nearly 50% of the time and is giving up hard contact 11% more often than Gray.

Look for the slumping Nationals to do some damage at the dish en route to a streak-snapping victory.

Bet: Nationals (-110)

Mets (+165) @ Braves (-185)

We have been riding the Braves consistently in recent months, but we successfully took a stand against them on Monday. Max Scherzer is worth making an exception for, but David Peterson isn't.

Peterson figures to struggle against the Braves on Tuesday night. His FIP is near 4.0 over the last month, and he has given up hard contact a whopping 41% of the time. That's a recipe for disaster against a team with as much pop as Atlanta.

Making matters worse is the Braves mash left-handed pitching. They own a .345 wOBA and .200 ISO against lefties over the past five weeks, comfortably ranking them top-10 in each category.

Peterson has very drastic splits as well. He can handle himself more than fine versus lefties. He struggles mightily against righties, though, and Matt Olson is the only notable lefty in the Braves' lineup. Atlanta is loaded with right-handed batters and with power. This is one of the worst lineups Peterson could draw.

I don't see the Mets keeping up against Spencer Strider. He has been one of the league's best pitchers over the last month, posting a 1.64 FIP and striking out 42% of the batters faced. Those are mind-numbing statistics.

While the Mets don't strike out a lot, they haven't hit righties overly well of late. I don't see that changing against Strider. But it'll need to, given the matchup Braves hitters have ahead of them.

The Braves should win this game - perhaps by multiple runs - but more value lies in backing them to win the first five innings.

Bet: Braves F5 -0.5 (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.