MLB Wednesday best bets: Orioles to complete the sweep vs. Rangers

After a great start to the week on Monday, we suffered through a 0-2 night on Tuesday. We were banking on the regression of projected starter Chris Archer against the Chicago White Sox, but he was a late scratch, and his replacement cleaned up nicely.

Meanwhile, the New York Yankees mustered up just one run against Jose Quintana, putting him in position to win his second game of the season.

We'll look to get back on track with a pair of plays for Wednesday.

Blue Jays (-185) @ Athletics (+165)

The pitching matchup in this game is rather disturbing, with James Kaprielian and Jose Berrios both entering with ERAs well above five. There should be plenty of runs in this game, and I think the majority will come from the Toronto Blue Jays, and they'll start early.

While neither pitcher is in remotely competent form, there are more red flags with Kaprielian. He has walked nearly 12% of opponents faced over the last month and is sporting a 5.52 FIP in that time. Hard contact has been a serious problem, as batters have posted a 35.1% hard-hit rate - one of the highest among today's starters.

This does not feel like a get-right spot for Kaprielian. If anything, it's a matchup where things could go from bad to worse.

Kaprielian is primarily a fastball pitcher, throwing it more than 53% of the time, which spells trouble against this Blue Jays team.

Toronto absolutely feasts on fastballs, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Teoscar Hernández, and Santiago Espinal all owning wOBAs above .380 against that pitch.

The Blue Jays also own the league's highest wOBA and hard-hit rate against righties over the last couple of weeks, so they should have no problem getting to Kaprielian.

While, again, Berrios hasn't pitched well either, the Oakland Athletics sit 23rd in wOBA and 28th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching over the same time. The A's are going to have trouble keeping up.

Bet: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-125)

Rangers (-110) @ Orioles (-110)

Scoring totals in this series have been very high to date, with the Baltimore Orioles claiming victories by 7-6 and 10-9 scorelines. Both teams should also put up their share of runs in this game, but Baltimore stands out a little more. I like the Orioles to complete the sweep over the Texas Rangers.

Spenser Watkins has gone through his share of struggles this season. Even so, he profiles better than Glenn Otto, who has been a disaster on the mound from the word go.

Otto is sporting a 5.49 FIP, has walked an absurd 14.1% of batters faced on the year, and has also given up hard contact more than 36% of the time. Very alarming.

In comparison, Watkins owns a 5.04 FIP, 9.3% walk rate, and concedes hard contact 30% of the time. Those numbers aren't good either, but they're noticeably better.

Perhaps more importantly, the matchups play more into Baltimore's favor. Otto struggles against batters on either side of the dish, but he has a tougher time against lefties. Key members of the lineup like Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and rookie Adley Rutschman all hit left or have the ability to do so.

Conversely, Watkins fares better against lefties, and the Rangers have plenty of them in Josh Smith, Corey Seager, Nate Lowe, and Kole Calhoun.

With a hotter offense (Baltimore ranks ahead of Texas in wOBA and ISO over the last two weeks), a slightly better pitcher on the mound, and matchups shaping up more favorably, there appear to be plenty of edges for the Orioles in this spot.

This is a more than fair price to back them to complete the sweep.

Bet: Orioles (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.