MLB Monday best bets: Twins to rebound in Chi-Town
We have a fun but digestible eight-game slate to look forward to on Monday night.
Let's take a closer look at a couple of plays that stand out the most.
Cardinals (+150) @ Braves (-170)
It's a day that ends with a "y," which means we're backing Kyle Wright and the Braves.
Wright has gotten touched up a little more of late, but the underlying profile still remains strong. He owns a 3.30 FIP and a 3.34 xFIP over the last month. He has walked only 5.3% of the batters faced and struck out nearly 8.5 per nine innings in that time.
He has continued to excel at limiting hard contact; opponents have hit him hard just 26.6% of the time over the last 30 days. He has also induced ground balls more than 53% of the time, which ranks him top-five in that category among the day's projected starters.
There are more red flags with Dakota Hudson. He has posted a 4.28 FIP over the last month while striking out only 13.7% of opposing batters. That's a very low number, especially considering he has walked batters more than 10% of the time. Hudson has also given up hard contact 10% more often than Wright over the same span.
So the Braves have a pitching advantage over the Cardinals and enter in much better form at the plate.
Atlanta ranks seventh in wOBA and fourth in ISO against right-handed pitching over the last couple of weeks. That's no coincidence, considering the Braves sit second in hard-hit rate. They continue to mash the baseball on a nightly basis, generating almost unmatched levels of power.
The Cardinals are lagging well behind right now, sitting 20th in wOBA and 16th in hard-hit rate. They have hit many fly balls, which has still led to their share of home runs, but it could be tough to generate a high volume against Wright.
Look for the Braves to get the early jump in this one.
Bet: Braves F5 -0.5 (-120)
Twins (+110) @ White Sox (-130)
On the surface, Johnny Cueto is enjoying a quietly strong season. His success appears to be smoke and mirrors, though - especially of late.
The 36-year-old righty sports a 5.06 FIP over the last month. That's much worse than his ERA (3.68), indicating we should be on high alert for regression.
Cueto has benefited from a low BABIP (.247) and a sky-high LOB (90.1%). Even a savvy veteran like Cueto has no business stranding 90% of the runners he allows on base.
Cueto and the White Sox could be in for a rude awakening against a Twins team that ranks top-10 in wOBA, ISO, and hard-hit rate against righties over the last couple of weeks.
Although Dylan Bundy isn't exactly untouchable, the White Sox don't profile well against his weaknesses. He can get into trouble with how many fly balls he concedes, but the White Sox rank 29th in fly-ball percentage against righties over the last couple of weeks.
They're getting the ball off the ground less than 29% of the time, slotting them ahead of only the Marlins.
Bundy should be able to prevent disaster, which might be all he needs to help the Twins get a win.
Bet: Twins (+110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.