MLB Tuesday best bets: Cardinals to fly in Milwaukee

Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Monday was a very good day on the diamond. The Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres both came through by leading after the first five innings, giving us our third straight 2-0 night.

Let's take a look at a couple of my favorite plays for Tuesday as we look to extend the streak to four.

Cardinals (-130) @ Brewers (+110)

The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in a nice rebound spot Tuesday night. Although Jack Flaherty is on a pitch count of 75 as he continues to work his way back to full strength, he should offer a lot more than his counterpart.

Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst arms in the majors. He doesn't strike out many batters, he gives up a lot of home runs, and his ERA is consistently sky-high.

Last year, he finished with a 6.46 ERA and 6.81 xERA over 100 frames. Sure, plenty of those innings were played in Colorado, but it takes more than a hitter-friendly park to get results that poor.

Gonzalez will be tasked with slowing down a Cardinals offense that's in fine form against right-handed pitching. The Cards rank tied for seventh in wOBA (.328) over the last couple of weeks versus righties. They've also been a top-10 side in terms of converting fly balls into homers during that span.

That spells trouble for Gonzalez, who's conceded 20 home runs over his last 108 frames dating back to last season. That equates to 1.66 per nine innings; not good!

Gonzalez also owns a .463 xwOBA against this Cardinals roster, albeit over just 44 at-bats.

With St. Louis' offense primed to give Flaherty ample run support, just five solid innings from the hurler should be enough to put the Cardinals well on their way to victory.

Bet: Cardinals (-130)

Guardians (+145) @ Twins (-165)

Aaron Civale is off to a disastrous start this season. He owns a 7.84 ERA through seven outings. Although his 4.97 FIP and unsustainably low 46.9% left-on-base percentage suggest he hasn't been as bad as advertised, there are still plenty of discouraging signs.

Civale is giving up a lot of hard contact. Opposing batters' average exit velocity is up nearly two miles. His barrel percentage is also nearly 4% higher than his career average as well. Plus, Civale's fly ball percentage is over 8% higher than his career mark.

While he's pitched better than somebody with an ERA approaching 8.00, there are enough problems beneath the hood to make sense of his poor results.

I expect some positive regression for Civale moving forward, but not Tuesday. The Minnesota Twins are tearing the cover off the ball versus righties, posting a .369 wOBA (third), .215 ISO (third), and 19% HR/FB rate (second) over the last couple of weeks.

Minnesota has a ton of power in its lineup and is patient enough to take a free pass if a pitcher isn't consistently hitting the zone. The Twins are likely to cause plenty of problems for Civale.

On the flip side, Joe Ryan has what it takes to slow down the Cleveland Guardians. He's struck out just under 8.5 batters per nine innings this season, and he doesn't give up a lot of hard contact or home runs.

I don't think the Guardians have enough quick-strike offense to keep up if the red-hot Twins can capitalize on Civale's struggles.

Back Minnesota to lead through five.

Bet: Twins F5 -0.5 (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Comments
MLB Tuesday best bets: Cardinals to fly in Milwaukee
  Got something to say? Leave a comment below!

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox