MLB Monday best bets: Brewers, Padres to start fast
The best bets are heating up as we put together consecutive 2-0 days before an extended weekend.
We'll look to pick up where we left off with a couple of plays for Monday night's eight-game slate.
Cardinals (+150) @ Brewers (-170)
Death, taxes, and backing Corbin Burnes. The superstar righty has been exceptional. He owns a sparkling 33 K% and a 2.39 FIP over the last month. His 3.00 ERA hasn't lagged far behind despite not getting much luck. He's also done this while his BABIP sits at .323, which is much higher than the .275 you'd expect it to hover around.
Burnes is striking out a lot of batters, he's generating soft contact at a very high rate, and he's keeping the ball in the park.
Although the St. Louis Cardinals are hitting right-handed pitchers very well, there's not much reason to be concerned about Burnes. He's struck out 41.5% of the batters he's faced through 106 plate appearances against the Cardinals while posting a wOBA of .265. He should be able to keep their offense in check.
I like the Milwaukee Brewers in this spot against Miles Mikolas. They've fared well against righties over the last while, especially at home.
Since May 1, the Brewers are tied for seventh in wOBA (.333) and sit seventh in ISO (.183). Only three teams have generated harder contact at a higher rate in that time.
Mikolas is competent, but he owns a 4.07 FIP over the last month and tossed 129 pitches his last time out. Even with an extra day off, he might not be as fresh as he generally would be.
The Brewers should be able to plate two or three runs against Mikolas in the first half of the game. If they do, it'll likely be more than enough support for Burnes to keep his team out front through five.
Bet: Brewers F5 -0.5 (-110)
Diamondbacks (+150) @ Padres (-170)
The San Diego Padres enter this contest on a three-game losing streak. I don't expect it to reach four.
They're scorching-hot at the plate against right-handers. In fact, no team has posted a higher wOBA (.374) over the last couple of weeks versus righties. They also sit fifth in hard-hit rate (33.5%), fourth in ISO (.206), and third in wRC+ (144) during that span.
Zach Davies is in good form, but the numbers beneath the surface suggest he's not untouchable. His FIP over the last month is nearly a full run higher than his ERA. He's also giving up plenty of hard contact and a lot of fly balls, which generally isn't a recipe for success.
Even if Davies limits the damage against San Diego, the Arizona Diamondbacks still may have trouble keeping up.
Yu Darvish has posted a 3.20 FIP over the last month. He's also walked just 3.7% of the batters he's faced in that span.
Darvish has gotten lucky in terms of BABIP, but I'm not sure that'll matter here. The Diamondbacks rank dead last in wOBA (.258) against right-handers over the last two weeks and are striking out a lot while rarely walking.
I do like the Padres to win this game, but I'm going to take things a step further and back them to lead through five.
With San Diego's offense smashing righties and Darvish in such good form, there looks to be plenty of value here.
Bet: Padres F5 -0.5 (-115)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.