MLB Wednesday best bets: Expect an offensive explosion in Toronto
Tuesday was a very good night for our best bets. The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs combined for 17 runs at Wrigley Field, sailing past the total of 10.5. It took extras, but the underdog Cincinnati Reds also picked up a multi-run victory in Arizona.
We'll look to keep things moving in the right direction with two more plays for Wednesday's slate.
The New York Mets are a powerhouse. They own the second-best record in baseball despite playing one of the hardest schedules and having their two aces, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, combine for fewer than 50 innings due to injuries.
It's tough to pick against them, but with Corbin Burnes on the mound, I feel this spot warranted.
Burnes owns a respectable 3.67 ERA over the last month even though he's been unlucky. His BABIP during that time is .314, which is on the high side and should dip.
The 27-year-old owns a ground-ball rate above 40% during that span and struck out nearly 30% of batters faced, all while handing out few free passes. The numbers beneath the hood look encouraging.
While still potent, the Mets' offense has cooled off a bit against righties. It ranks 13th in wOBA and hard-hit rate against RHP over the last two weeks. It's not as if Burnes is going up against an unstoppable force right now.
The Milwaukee Brewers don't hit lefties all that well, but there's reason to believe they can plate their share of runs in this one. David Peterson owns a 4.90 FIP over the last month and walked more than 13% of batters faced. He can be hit around and will give up free base runners if you're patient.
Burnes generally doesn't need much run support to end up in the win column. If the Brewers can take advantage of what Peterson gives them, they should be able to beat the NL leaders.
Bet: Brewers (-135)
Bruce Zimmerman enters this game in truly horrendous form. He owns a 9.47 ERA and 8.51 FIP over the last month. He's giving up a lot of fly balls, and none of today's projected starters have allowed a higher hard-hit rate, so it's no coincidence balls routinely leave the park; he conceded more than four home runs per nine innings during this stretch.
He's now drawing one of the worst matchups possible against a red-hot Toronto Blue Jays team. Toronto owns a ridiculous .387 wOBA (second), 38.4% hard-hit rate (second), and 12.3% walk rate (first) against left-handed pitching over the last five weeks.
Zimmerman made one start against the Jays in his career, allowing five hits and three runs while failing to get out of the first inning. There's every reason to believe he'll be roughed up once again.
On the flip side, the Baltimore Orioles should also be able to generate some runs. Jose Berrios' form is improving, but there are still some red flags in his profile. For example, he allowed a hard-hit rate of 36.1% over the last month - third-worst among today's projected starters.
That's not ideal against an offense that's quietly swinging the sticks very well - especially when it comes to generating power. Baltimore owns a .225 ISO versus righties over the last two weeks, which slots it behind only the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, and Philadelphia Phillies.
It's not just dumb luck either. The O's rank second in fly-ball percentage (46.2%) and fourth in hard-hit rate (35.1%) during that span. They're consistently making heavy contact and getting the ball in the air, which is a recipe for strong power numbers.
Look for them to chip in a few runs in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Bet: Over 9 (-120)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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