MLB Tuesday best bets: Back the bats at Wrigley
We're coming off a disappointing split to start the week. The Braves again took care of business for us. Unfortunately, the Astros failed to score any runs over the final seven innings of their game, and we came up a hair shy on the over as a result.
Let's dive into a couple of plays that stand out on Tuesday night.
The total in this game (10.5) is tied for the highest on the slate, and yet, it doesn't seem high enough. There is big-time run potential.
Kyle Hendricks is taking the bump for the Cubs. He has been nothing short of horrendous, especially over the last month. He owns a slate-worst 7.93 FIP in that time. He has struck out only 8.1% of the batters faced - compared to a 6.5% walk rate - and conceded home runs at an alarming rate of 3.21 per nine innings.
The Padres haven't been a prolific offensive side of late, but they have fared OK versus righties. They sit 18th in wOBA and 11th in hard-hit rate over the last two weeks.
Their offense is potent enough to generate runs - even more so against someone playing as poorly as Hendricks. The weather should only help the cause. It's expected to feel like 96 degrees at first pitch, and the wind will be blowing outward at nearly 13 miles per hour. That'll help the ball carry, not that Hendricks needs help giving up big flys.
Sean Manaea is a strong pitcher, but he's not entering play in his finest form. He owns a 4.18 FIP over the last month, which is well above his 3.12 ERA. An unsustainably low .203 BABIP has helped keep run counts lower than they should be.
The Cubs should be able to do some damage against Manaea. Since May 1, they're tied for 11th in wOBA (.342) at home versus lefties. With an ISO of .209 (seventh), they have generated a lot of power. Their batted-ball numbers are strong as well; they have a hard-hit rate of 34.5% (fourth) in that time.
This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair.
Bet: Over 10.5 runs (-105)
The Reds are quietly playing some competent baseball. They've won two in a row and four of the last eight, which is quite good by their standards. I like that success to continue Tuesday night against the Diamondbacks.
The Reds enter this game in pretty good form at the plate. Against righties, they sit 14th in wOBA and eighth in hard-hit percentage over the last two weeks.
Zach Davies doesn't seem likely to slow the Reds down. He owns a 5.06 ERA and 4.83 FIP over the last month. He's striking batters out at a below-average rate and ranks top third on the slate in fly ball percentage. That has played a part in his struggles keeping the ball within the park; he has given up 1.69 homers per nine over the last 30 days.
Arizona's offense isn't in as prime of a spot for success. Tyler Mahle (3.94 FIP, 27.4 K%) has quietly pitched very well lately while the Diamondbacks have struggled at the dish.
They sit 23rd in wOBA and 26th in wRC+ versus righties over the last couple of weeks.
Mahle should be able to give the Reds a quality start, which would put them well on their way to a third straight win.
Bet: Reds (+100)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.