MLB weekend best bets: Braves to start fast vs. Pirates
We have a jam-packed weekend of baseball to look forward to. Let's examine the best way to attack the games with a bet for each day.
Orioles (-110) @ Royals (-110)
June 10, 8:10 p.m. EST
They have hit well of late, posting a .315 wOBA (15th) and .205 ISO (fifth) against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. They also sit tied for first - alongside the Atlanta Braves - in hard-hit percentage during that time. They're taking the cover off the ball right now.
I like their chances of putting up a crooked number in this spot. Not only are they hitting righties well, but they're going up against a righty who is struggling mightily.
Jon Heasley owns a putrid 6.38 FIP and 6.25 xFIP over the last month. He has walked 6.40 batters and allowed nearly 1.5 homers per nine innings in that span. He has also given up fly balls nearly 42% of the time. Not good - especially against a side hitting for so much power right now.
While Bruce Zimmerman has also been hit around, there are some signs of encouragement. He's walked just 2.6% of the batters faced over the month and his xFIP (4.87) and SIERA (4.98) are far below his counting numbers. Don't get me wrong, they're still not good.
But he should be able to do enough to get by against a Royals team laboring against lefties. They have posted a sub .300 wOBA (23rd) and .119 ISO (22nd) versus LHP since May 1.
I think the over (9.5) is viable but more value lies with the Orioles.
Bet: Orioles (-110)
Diamondbacks (TBD) @ Phillies (TBD)
June 11, 4:05 p.m. EST
The Philadelphia Phillies are scorching hot. Regardless of what happens on Friday night, they're positioned extremely well to pick up another win on Saturday.
I think they'll start fast against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks. We have targeted Bumgarner quite often of late - while he has predictably started to regress, there's still another level to go.
The veteran lefty has posted advanced metrics much worse than his counting stats. His ERA sits at 3.64 while his FIP comes in at 5.01. He's giving up a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls, which is a dangerous combination against a team like the Phillies.
They have a very potent offense and have enjoyed plenty of success against lefties, ranking in the top 10 in ISO and wOBA since May 1.
Zack Wheeler should be able to limit an Arizona offense that has quietly hit a wall, as they sit 23rd in wOBA vs RHP over the last couple of weeks.
Bet: Phillies F5 -0.5 (good to -150)
Pirates (TBD) @ Braves (TBD)
June 12, 1:35 p.m. EST
Death, taxes, and backing the Braves with Kyle Wright on the bump. His statistical profile is sparkling across the board. He strikes out a ton of batters, doesn't give up much hard contact, and he keeps the ball on the ground. That's exactly what you want to see out of a pitcher.
Wright's counterpart, Jose Quintana, has also pitched well this season, but not to nearly the same extent. There are signs he may soon take a step back - his xERA (4.57) is far above his actual ERA (2.85).
Perhaps more importantly, the Braves are as good as anybody against left-handed pitching. They lead the majors in ISO (.226), sit second in wOBA (.364), rank fifth in walk rate (10.5%), and are tops in hard-hit rate (38.6%).
They should be able to plate a few runs against Quintana, which will likely be more than enough support for Wright.
Bet: Braves F5 -0.5 (good to -150)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
- Orioles GM confident in playoff chances: 'I think we're gonna' make it
- Report: Red Sox plan to restart talks with Bogaerts, Devers after season
- Reds' India was airlifted to hospital after HBP in Field of Dreams game
- Rookie of the Year rankings: Adley makes his push, Braves' pair rules in NL
- Betts, Muncy homer, Dodgers beat K.C. for 12th straight win