World Series odds update: Which teams are trending up, down after 1st month?
We're just over a month into the MLB season, and we've already seen some historic starts by a handful of teams - some good, some disastrously bad. But how much has that affected the World Series oddsboard with five months still to go?
As it turns out, quite a bit. Here are the updated World Series odds entering this weekend with a few of the biggest movers over the first month:
World Series odds (as of May 14)
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+450|
|New York Yankees||+800|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+800|
|New York Mets||+850|
|Chicago White Sox||+1600|
|San Diego Padres||+1600|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+1800|
|Los Angeles Angels||+2200|
|San Francisco Giants||+2500|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+2800|
|Boston Red Sox||+5000|
|Kansas City Royals||+10000|
New York Mets (+800)
The Mets entered this season with plenty of hype, as their opening price of 18-1 was bet down to as short as 10-1 at some shops before settling around 15-1 in early April. Apparently, bettors weren't confident enough because New York has exceeded those lofty expectations through the first month.
Even with Jacob deGrom yet to make a start, the Mets' staff leads the majors in SIERA (3.16) and ranks in the top three in FIP (3.31), whiff rate (29.2%), and strikeout rate (26.8%) as the club has gotten off to a 22-12 start. And while New York's bats have cooled as of late, the offense's hot first month - especially MVP candidate Francisco Lindor - shows just how dangerous this group can be if everything is clicking.
Minnesota Twins (+2500)
No team has seen its price shorten more than the Twins, who were as high as 100-1 after free agency and 50-1 entering the year - a price that theScore's Alex Moretto highlighted as his best bet ahead of Opening Day.
They've made those odds look foolish through the first month, pacing the AL Central with a 19-14 record behind MVP contender Byron Buxton, who owns a ridiculous 1.025 OPS with 10 home runs in just 22 contests. He's not the only one: Seven Twins batters had an OPS+ above 100 entering Saturday, which speaks to just how deep and explosive this Minnesota order has been through 33 games.
Boston Red Sox (+5000)
What's wrong with the Red Sox? This group entered the season among the favorites to win the American League behind a loaded lineup and a workable rotation. Instead, it owns bottom-five marks in OBP (.287) and SLG (.346) and has struggled to keep opposing teams from launching it out of the park.
Some of that will sort itself out - Boston's pitching staff owns the second-lowest groundball rate (38.6%) and highest exit velocity allowed (91 MPH) after above-average marks in both areas last year. Those should normalize across a full season. Still, this team is built to go as far as its bats will take it, and with only three qualified batters hitting .220 or better, that may not be very far.
Detroit Tigers (+8000)
While teams like the Nationals (200-1), Athletics (200-1), and Orioles (400-1) have seen their odds balloon higher than the Tigers, none of those teams had the Detroits' preseason hype. The club was dealing as short as 40-1 entering the campaign after a free agency spending bonanza. So far, all of those dollars have generated 10 wins in 33 tries for the AL's last-place team.
Javier Baez's walk-off hit on Opening Day has been the highlight for the $140-million man, who is hitting a paltry .213 with just two home runs in 24 games. That's been the story across the board for the Tigers, who rank last in SLG (.304), barrel rate (5.8%), and home runs (13). That simply won't cut it in today's power-happy run environment.
Cincinnati Reds (+50000)
It's almost a miracle that the Reds opened at 40-1 to win the World Series back in November and were dealing "as short" as 100-1 after shipping off nearly every veteran asset on the roster. Even with such a long preseason price, no team has seen its stock plummet more than Cincinnati through the first month.
That's what happens when you lose 22 of your first 25 games, something only two other teams have done since the turn of the 20th century. The Reds rank dead last in win percentage (.273) and run differential (-62) and were on pace for the worst record in MLB history until a pair of wins over the similarly inept Pirates. If you bet on this team to win the World Series before this season, you can probably use your ticket as a napkin at this point.
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