MLB Monday best bets: Cubs', Rockies' bats to struggle vs. surging arms
We finished with a 1-2 record on our MLB picks over a postponement-marred weekend, with two of our three picks getting pushed back a day. Let's hope for better results on a calmer Monday evening.
Brewers-Reds under 7.5 (-120), 6:40 p.m. ET
When these teams faced off last week, the Brewers combined to score 34 runs and cashed three overs in a dominant three-game sweep. Those kinds of results aren't likely Monday with Reds ace Luis Castillo making his season debut.
The former All-Star had an up-and-down 2021 season that ended on a high note, posting a 2.69 ERA over his final 20 starts - the ninth-best mark among qualified starters. The right-hander also made four strong starts against Milwaukee in that span, allowing a combined three runs in 24 2/3 innings (1.09 ERA) to his team's division rival.
Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff hasn't his best stuff thus far, though his 5.18 ERA is inflated by a disastrous season debut. He's posted a 3.05 ERA since then and struck out 12 Reds batters in 5 2/3 frames the last time these teams met. Expect a similar effort in a likely pitcher's duel on Monday.
Cubs under 3 runs (-110) @ Padres, 9:40 p.m.
The Cubs' offense has struggled mightily through the first month of the season, and there looks to be no end in sight for their futility at the plate.
Since plating six runs against the Braves on April 27, Chicago scored three or fewer runs in nine straight games - including one run or no runs in six of those contests. As you can imagine, the Cubs rank dead last in basically every offensive category over that stretch, though the lack of power (.245 SLG, .090 ISO) and MLB-worst strikeout rate (30.5%) are perhaps the biggest indictments of their performance.
That isn't likely to change against onetime elite prospect MacKenzie Gore, who has shaken off his prior minor-league woes and spun a 1.71 ERA (2.88 FIP) with 22 strikeouts through his first four starts for the Padres. The last time Gore faced an offense of this ilk was in an April 27 start versus the Reds, who struck out 10 times in five innings.
Giants -1.5 (-110) vs. Rockies, 9:45 p.m.
When Carlos Rodon is on the mound, bettors best pay attention. The Giants ace has posted a Cy Young-worthy line through five starts, boasting a 1.55 ERA and ranking second in fWAR (1.3), fourth in FIP (1.38), and sixth in strikeout rate (36.9%) among all qualified starters.
San Francisco has won three of those five starts by a combined 12 runs, though its offense went cold in losses to Marlins starter Pablo Lopez and Dodgers starter Julio Urias - two of the best arms in the NL. That description doesn't apply to Rockies starter Austin Gomber, who gave up five runs the last time he faced this Giants lineup.
Also, ignore the records for these teams, which both enter Monday's game at 16-12. Colorado has faced the third-easiest slate of any team in the majors thus far, playing just two teams (Dodgers, Diamondbacks) that currently have a winning record. San Francisco should take care of business here, especially behind its sterling ace.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.