MLB weekend best bets: Bet low with Gausman, Bieber on mound
We called our shot with Jesus Luzardo facing a tired Padres offense, but the Marlins couldn't muster enough run production to support his strong effort. Alas, we split our two MLB picks Thursday ahead of a busy few days of baseball. Here are our best bets entering the weekend:
Pirates (-125) @ Reds
May 6, 6:40 p.m. ET
Editor's note: This game has since been postponed to Saturday.
When the Pirates are priced as outright road favorites - which hasn't happened since 2019 - something's gone terribly wrong on the other side. And that's certainly the case for the Reds.
Cincinnati's 3-22 start to the season is tied for the second-worst through 25 games in MLB history and the worst in the wild-card era. The Reds surrendered a combined 28 runs to the Brewers in their last two games and hold the dubious distinction of ranking dead last in ERA (6.86) and OPS (.585).
Friday starter Connor Overton (1.69 ERA) has a nice stat line, but he's still a career journeyman who wasn't good enough to make the Pirates' roster a few months ago. It'll take a herculean effort for him to carry his new team to its fourth win.
Guardians vs. Blue Jays under 6.5 runs (even)
May 6, 7:10 p.m.
Editor's note: This game has since been postponed to Saturday.
It may feel risky betting under on such a low total, but playing into the extremes has been a consistently profitable strategy when betting MLB totals - especially betting low on the lowest totals.
Since 2007, the under is 710-602-22 (54.1%) on totals of 6.5 or lower, and it's been the better bet in 12 of 15 seasons entering this year. It makes sense in theory - oddsmakers can only price these totals so low before getting flooded with sharp over money, but oftentimes the price isn't low enough with two aces on the mound.
That's the case in this one, with Kevin Gausman (2.27 ERA) and Shane Bieber (2.46) facing off after sterling starts to the season. Gausman has been virtually untouchable for the Blue Jays, boasting a 41-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio through five starts, while Guardians ace Bieber has countered low velocity with a wicked slider and outside fastball combo. The result should be a pitcher's duel worth the price.
Padres team total under (TBD) vs. Marlins
May 7, 8:40 p.m.
We loved the matchup between Luzardo and a slugging Padres order Thursday but paid the price for betting the moneyline instead of the San Diego team total. We won't make that mistake again with Pablo Lopez set to toe the rubber Saturday.
The fifth-year Marlins veteran has been a revelation this year, owning a 1.29 ERA and 0.893 WHIP through five starts and making a legitimate case for NL Cy Young honors. He allowed just one run through 23 1/3 innings before surrendering four runs (three earned) to the Diamondbacks on Monday, though he still struck out seven batters with a ridiculous 18 swinging strikes in 4 2/3 innings.
He should be able to work his magic against the Padres, who rank fourth in runs scored but sit in the bottom six in xBA (.237), xSLG (.394), xwOBAcon (.361), and barrel rate (5.9%). Translation: They haven't hit the ball well despite fortunate results. I expect that to catch up to them against Lopez.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].