Over/under: Breaking down 2022 PECOTA projections for every team
Every year, PECOTA sets its projections for the upcoming season. Our editors looked at the expected win totals for each club and made predictions on whether each team would finish over or under those totals. Last year we went 20/30.
The Yankees will be in tough to win close to 99 games. New York's front office added glove-first shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa and oft-injured slugger Josh Donaldson to a club that won 92 contests in 2021. The rotation also has serious durability concerns.
The Blue Jays played like a 100-win team last season based on run differential. Toronto replaced Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien with Kevin Gausman and Matt Chapman, the bullpen that finished 2021 strong is back, Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah are in the rotation for a full campaign, and the club gets to finally play 81 games at Rogers Centre.
The middle of the lineup is ferocious with Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, and Trevor Story. However, Chris Sale is already injured and the rest of the rotation after Nathan Eovaldi doesn't strike much fear into anybody.
Underestimating the Rays at this point is just silly. Tampa Bay won 100 games last season with a similar roster. Internal improvements could come with full seasons from Wander Franco, Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, and Luis Patino. Manager Kevin Cash always gets the most out of his team.
The Orioles are going to have another rough ride following a 110-loss campaign. Top prospect Adley Rutschman will eventually join an offense that includes some nice bats. However, Baltimore's pitching will really struggle in baseball's toughest division.
The White Sox won 93 games a season ago and are better on paper this year. The bullpen remains elite even after trading Craig Kimbrel and losing Garrett Crochet to Tommy John surgery. Lynn's injury stinks, but a turnaround campaign from former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, who posted the third-worst FIP in the majors last year, would certainly help.
Minnesota had one of the most active offseasons of any club, and while the additions of Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez, and Gio Urshela give them a solid lineup, the starting pitching remains a concern behind Sonny Gray.
A new name probably isn't going to translate into more wins for the Guardians. The team made few improvements to their club due to their frugal ways; the roster doesn't feature any household names outside of Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber, Franmil Reyes, and Emmanuel Clase. Ramirez might be gone by the trade deadline, too.
The Royals haven't won more than 81 games since capturing the World Series in 2015, but you've got to give Kansas City credit for at least trying to put a winning product on the field. The additions of Zack Greinke and Amir Garrett, as well as the arrival of No. 1 prospect Bobby Witt Jr. should help them at least match their 74 wins from a season ago.
The Tigers were a big surprise last season, winning 77 games under A.J. Hinch. Detroit’s front office signed powerful shortstop Javier Baez and rotation ace Eduardo Rodriguez while bringing in veteran depth at catcher and in the bullpen. This club should be better, especially with top prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene incoming.
Carlos Correa's departure leaves the Astros with a hole in the clubhouse and on the field. Replacing a franchise stalwart won't be easy, but Houston is bullish on rookie Jeremy Pena. Despite some question marks, the Astros are clearly the class of the division.
The question with the Angels is the same as it's been for the last few years: do they have enough pitching? The talent is certainly there to approach 90 wins and a playoff spot, but this still looks like a club more likely to fall around 85 victories.
The Mariners outperformed expectations last season with clutch hitting and a lockdown bullpen. They might not be a playoff team in 2022, but this looks like a club that can put pressure on the Astros.
Texas was armed with lots of money this offseason and the Rangers went big, spending over $500 million in free agency. The additions of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Mitch Garver will add some teeth to a lineup that finished 28th in runs scored last season. This has the makings of an exciting roster and one that should approach a .500 record.
The Athletics find themselves in another rebuild. They historically find a way to make lemonade out of lemons but this year's roster likely won't compete. If players like Kevin Smith and Christian Pache blossom, Oakland could be a thorn in the side of the rest of the division.
The defending World Series champions will be getting plenty of reinforcements. Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuna Jr. return to the Braves, and replacing Freddie Freeman with Matt Olson could be an improvement on both sides of the ball. Atlanta's bullpen looks to be the best in the majors after adding Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh.
Steve Cohen is going to take another crack at buying a title in 2022. The Mets owner opened up his wallet to bring in Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, Adam Ottavino, and Chris Bassitt. The additions give New York an elite club if it can stay healthy.
Bryce Harper got some help. The front office brought in sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, who combined to hit 66 homers last season. The revamped lineup and new-look bullpen should push Philly past the 86-win mark.
The Marlins are going to have a hard time winning at least 11 more games this season in such a loaded division. Miami's rotation could be very good with Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Trevor Rogers leading the way. However, the signings of Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler probably aren't enough to bring the offense to the next level.
The Nationals are destined for a tough campaign despite employing arguably the best hitter in baseball. Juan Soto could end up winning MVP and Washington will still finish with 60 wins.
The Brewers were the class of the NL Central in 2021 with 95 wins and they look bound to improve. Milwaukee's pitching staff remains filthy and the lineup should receive a boost after replacing Jackie Bradley Jr. with Hunter Renfroe. The Brewers also added former MVP Andrew McCutchen. Turnaround campaigns from Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura would be huge for the Brewers’ win total as well.
What year is it? A Cardinals team seeking improvement on a 90-win campaign will feature Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright on the roster. While those three should factor into the final win tally, St. Louis needs big campaigns from Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O'Neill if it plans to contend.
Cincinnati shed payroll by trading Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Amir Garrett. Two valuable players from last season - Nick Castellanos and Wade Miley - also won't return. While replacements Tommy Pham, Mike Minor, Colin Moran, and Donovan Solano are capable players, it's doubtful the Reds will be better this season.
A new-look Cubs team featuring Marcus Stroman, Seiya Suzuki, and a slew of others is primed to exceed the 2021 total of 71 wins. The lineup is better, the bullpen is stronger and loaded with veteran talent, and the rotation could be sneaky good with Kyle Hendricks, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, and Alec Mills slotting in behind Stroman.
The Pirates added veteran players Jose Quintana and Daniel Vogelbach, but those moves were likely made to further build their farm system come the trade deadline. The additions will also provide their budding core with some experienced help. Pittsburgh has a few more years of rebuilding to do.
Although the Dodgers lost Corey Seager, Max Scherzer, and Kenley Jansen, they added Freddie Freeman and boast the best lineup in the game. They're the prohibitive favorite to win a second World Series crown in three seasons and seem like a lock to win triple digits.
The Padres will be without Fernando Tatis Jr. to start the season and look lean offensively as a result. The rotation again looks strong on paper and might need to be the anchor if the Padres hope to contend for a playoff spot.
PECOTA clearly isn't buying the Giants' franchise-record 107-win campaign last year. There are injury concerns with several pitchers in the rotation, but even baking in some expected regression, this still looks like a club that should easily eclipse the 78-win mark.
After tying baseball's worst record at 52-110 last season, PECOTA seems to be overestimating what the D-Backs can accomplish in 2022. It's hard to see how this team is even 10 wins better than last season, let alone 20.
The additions of Bryant and Randal Grichuk will help the Rockies score more runs, but they will likely have trouble preventing them with a mediocre pitching staff. It probably won't be a banner year in Denver, but 70-plus wins is a safe bet.
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