World Series Game 3 preview: Astros' offense poised to stay hot

The World Series is all tied up as play shifts back to Atlanta for three games.

The Braves hit Framber Valdez around early in Game 1 and coasted to a 6-2 win, which allowed them to steal home-field advantage.

Houston flipped the script in Game 2, teeing off on Max Fried - he allowed six runs while getting just 15 outs - in a statement 7-2 victory.

Who will break the deadlock tonight? Let's dig in.

Astros (-105) @ Braves (-115)

The Astros took Fried to the cleaners Wednesday, and I expect more of the same Friday against Ian Anderson.

He enters play with a woeful 5.98 FIP over the last 30 days. Anderson's 4.39 ERA doesn't look nearly as bad, as he has benefited from plenty of luck in that time. Just 20% of the balls put in play against him resulted in hits, which is well below the 30% we'd expect.

Anderson's pitching arsenal also profiles horribly against these Astros. They excel against Anderson's two most frequently used pitches: the four-seam fastball (47%) and changeup (31%).

Five projected Astros starters posted wOBAs above .375 against the four-seamer during the regular season. They were similarly good against the changeup; five starters finished with wOBAs above .363 and three came in above a whopping .430.

While Anderson does also use a curve, he throws pitches Astros bats excel against nearly 80% of the time. They definitely have the potential to chase Anderson early.

Luis Garcia isn't exactly a shutdown arm but has the weapons to slow the Braves' offense down.

Garcia throws a lot of four-seamers, which the Braves can get to, but he has four other pitches in his repertoire. Garcia also features a cutter, slider, and change, none of which the Braves hit all that well. He mixes in an occasional curve too.

Just two Braves regulars posted wOBAs above .350 vs. cutters and/or changeups. They fared even worse against sliders, with only two bats recording wOBAs above .320. That's not exactly a high bar to clear.

The Astros are a very analytically inclined organization, so there's no doubt Garcia will throw fewer four-seamers and instead rely on his wide array of pitches to target Braves bats with stuff they don't hit well.

If Garcia has any success doing so, the Astros should be in good shape. Their offense is in a great spot to continue piling up runs, at least in the early going.

Bet: Astros -105.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.