MLB Wednesday best bets: Red Sox bats to make noise early
Tuesday's MLB slate was a very successful one for us. We were on the Atlanta Braves to get to Walker Buehler early and either win or draw the first five innings. We also backed the Houston Astros to level the series in Boston, which they did by erupting late en route to a 9-2 victory.
We'll look to keep the good times rolling Wednesday in what is possibly the last two-game slate of the season.
Astros (+100) @ Red Sox (-120)
The Astros have generally enjoyed a lot of success against left-handed pitching. I'm not sure that's going to continue Wednesday.
Chris Sale is a fantastic hurler with a very strong underlying profile, especially of late. He's posted a 2.89 FIP and struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings over the last 30 days. Sale's locked in.
While Sale does throw a lot of four-seam fastballs, which the Astros can hit, he possesses an ace up his sleeve: his slider.
The Astros don't hit sliders - Sale's second-most frequently used pitch - very well. Just two of their batters posted wOBAs above .340 versus sliders this season.
Sale has enjoyed a lot of success against Houston in his career, holding the club's bats to a .306 wOBA against him. I think he'll be able to limit the Astros in the early going, which sets up Boston to win the first five innings.
The Red Sox profile amazingly well against projected starter Framber Valdez. He almost exclusively throws sinkers (52.6%) and curveballs (30.8%), which screams trouble against this Boston team.
Eight Red Sox batters posted a .365 wOBA or higher against sinkers, and four projected starters finished with a wOBA above .380.
I think Boston hits Valdez around early, leading to a thin and fatigued Houston bullpen after the Astros got just 1 1/3 innings from Zack Greinke on Tuesday.
Bet: Red Sox F5 ML (-120)
Braves (+175) @ Dodgers (-210)
The Braves squandered a chance to put the hammer down and grab a commanding 3-0 lead over the Dodgers. I think they're going to pay for it Wednesday.
Atlanta draws Julio Urias, who's enjoyed plenty of success against the Braves early in his career.
Over 15 innings spanning four appearances versus the Braves, Urias has piled up 14 strikeouts while conceding only three runs and holding them to a woeful wOBA of .245.
That's bad news considering this will be a bullpen game for Atlanta. The Braves don't have a quality arm to throw at the Dodgers and pitch a handful of quality innings. They'll have to try and piece something together.
Atlanta's relievers have an expected FIP of nearly 4.60 over the last 30 days, so there's not much reason to believe they can enjoy success against this loaded Dodgers lineup.
Expect L.A. to get after the Braves early.
Bet: Dodgers F5 -1 (-105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.