Why Corbin Burnes is a must-bet to win NL Cy Young

If Jacob deGrom doesn't throw another pitch this year, it'll be one of the greatest wasted seasons in MLB history. The Mets star and two-time NL Cy Young winner opened as the Cy Young favorite this season and was running away with the award at the All-Star break when he led all starters in nearly every stat behind a 1.08 ERA, 1.24 FIP, and baffling 45.1% strikeout rate.

He hasn't pitched since July 7, and he's now a distant long shot to win it with his season in jeopardy due to a lingering elbow injury. His absence has blown open the Cy Young market, and there is no shortage of viable candidates. Yet there's one pitcher who, like deGrom before him, currently paces the NL across the board amid a historic campaign.

That would be Corbin Burnes, who was the last pitcher to face off against deGrom and should be the first pitcher you bet in his place. The Brewers righty is currently priced at +330 to win the award, trailing Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (+175) and Dodgers star Walker Buehler (+300). With due respect to those two, Burnes ought to be the clear favorite behind one of the most criminally underrated seasons in recent memory.

A cut above the rest

If the Cy Young award was decided by blind resume, it'd be hard to make the case for anyone other than Burnes, who leads the NL in seemingly every relevant pitching stat and would be an easy choice if matched up against any other pitcher in this field. If you don't believe it, check the numbers.

Burnes ranks second among qualified pitchers in ERA (2.13), which might somehow be the biggest statistical blemish on his resume. As of Wednesday, he leads the majors in pitching fWAR (5.8), FIP (1.59), SIERA (2.58), strikeouts per nine (12.4), walks per nine (1.63), home runs per nine (0.35), and CSW rate (34.3%), among other stats. Aside from hitting 40 home runs or patrolling the outfield on his off days, there's not much more Burnes can do to state his case as this season's most dominant hurler.

The craziest part is that Burnes has actually been unlucky by advanced metrics. His expected ERA (xERA) - which uses Statcast data to measure quality of contact - is 1.82, nearly a full run lower than any other pitcher this year. And of the 13 NL starters with an ERA better than 3.40, Burnes is the only one with an xERA better than his ERA. Translation: He's the only top-tier pitcher who is outperforming his surface stats, which are already the best in the majors.

In fact, the only real knock on Burnes is that he's made two-to-three fewer starts than the competition thanks to a two-week hiatus in May. In reality, that should be a strength for his candidacy. He's gone deep enough into his starts to qualify for the leaderboards, and he's been more dominant on a cumulative and per-inning basis than his peers.

Burnes vs. the record books

The stats clearly paint a favorable picture for Burnes. What about the narrative? After all, the first-time All-Star is one of three Brewers pitchers posting elite numbers this year, which is the only conceivable reason why his historic season is being overlooked.

Burnes has still been his team's best pitcher thus far, and he's been a key reason why Milwaukee is on pace to win the division and threaten for a World Series title despite entering the year as a 50-1 long shot. The Brewers are 13-8 in Burnes' 21 starts, including 6-2 against division opponents, and have been -175 favorites on average when he takes the mound. If anyone deserves credit for this team's breakout season, it's Burnes.

He's also setting records in the process, which is always relevant for an award voted on by baseball writers. In May, Burnes set an MLB record for the most consecutive strikeouts without a walk to start a campaign (58), which was also the longest such stretch at any point in any season. A week ago, he struck out 10 straight batters to tie Tom Seaver and Aaron Nola for the most in MLB history. He fanned 15 batters in that game, the second-most ever by a Brewers pitcher, and tied with deGrom for the most by anyone in a game this year.

If his numbers hold, he'll further etch his name in the record books. His current strikeouts-per-nine (12.4) ranks 11th in MLB history across a full season, while his FIP (1.59) is 12th-best overall and fourth in the live-ball era. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.61) sits at 24th - just behind the career-high marks for Justin Verlander (7.84), Clayton Kershaw (7.71), and Satchel Paige (7.67). How's that for elite company?

Burnes is showing no signs of slowing down, either. His 1.54 ERA since June 25 is second-best in the majors, as he's allowed one run or fewer in eight of his nine starts. He may not be deGrom, but he's been the next best thing and is a screaming value to win Cy Young. It's only a matter of time before the market takes notice.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.