Tokyo Olympics: Men's baseball preview
Men's baseball is back at the Olympics for the first time since 2008, and it isn't expected to return until 2028 at the earliest. That makes this year particularly important for these teams to stake their claim at gold.
Here are the odds and history of this event, as well as a breakdown of the field.
Odds to win gold
| NATION | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Japan | +150 |
| USA | +275 |
| South Korea | +400 |
| Dominican Republic | +500 |
| Mexico | +700 |
| Israel | +6000 |
Past winners
| YEAR | GOLD | SILVER | BRONZE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | South Korea | Cuba | USA |
| 2004 | Cuba | Australia | Japan |
| 2000 | USA | Cuba | Korea |
| 1996 | Cuba | Japan | USA |
| 1992 | Cuba | Chinese Taipei | Japan |
Competition breakdown
Japan earned its spot in this six-team field as the host country, but the No. 1 club in the World Baseball Softball Confederation (WBSC) Baseball World Rankings would have found its way into this event, anyway. Former Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka is the most notable name to the casual observer. However, this team is littered with talent from Nippon Professional Baseball, which halted its seasons to help bolster the roster for the hosts and rightful favorites.
Japan's last taste of Olympic baseball came in a 2008 semifinal loss to Team USA, which enters this event as the defending World Baseball Classic (2017) champions and will give the hosts a run for its money. The U.S. won't have its top talent on display - MLB prohibits players on a 40-man roster from participating - but the combination of former All-Star Todd Frazier and top prospects such as Triston Casas, Shane Baz, and Simeon Woods-Richardson should be enough to give the Americans a decent shot.
While the U.S. has shorter odds to win, South Korea actually has the second-best team in this event based on the WBSC rankings, which place the Koreans third behind Japan (No. 1) and Chinese Taipei (No. 2) and ahead of the USA (No. 4). The 2008 gold medalists are led by former KBO star and MLB slugger Hyun Soo Kim, whose bat has come up clutch for South Korea in past international competitions.
The Dominican Republic narrowly avoided missing this year's field, sweeping the WBSC Baseball Final Qualifier in late June to secure the sixth and final spot. Don't count out this group because of it. The Dominicans' pitching staff has been rebuilt ahead of this event, but their outfield is loaded with former MLB stars Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera and minor-league standout Julio Rodriguez, who ranks as MLB's No. 3 prospect, per Baseball America.
Can Mexico make a surprise run in its Olympic baseball debut? The Mexicans bested Team USA in the 2019 WBSC Premier12 to qualify for this event, and that came without former MLB star Adrian Gonzalez, who joined the Mexican Baseball League in 2021 ahead of these Olympic Games.
Israel is the only team in this event ranked outside of the top 10 in the latest WBSC rankings. However, it was the first nation to qualify for this competition after dominating the WBSC Europe-Africa Qualifier in 2019. The headliner for this group is Ian Kinsler, who helped lead the U.S. to its World Baseball Classic victory in 2017.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.