MLB weekend best bets: Back Woodruff, Castillo in pitcher's duel
We're carrying a 45-29-2 record on our MLB picks into this weekend, which is our first taste of real games since last week. Here are our favorite bets:
Rays under 4 runs (-125) at Braves
July 16, 7:20 p.m. ET
If you thought this was the year to finally fade the venerable Charlie Morton, think again. The Braves' 37-year-old ace has been stellar across his past five starts, posting a 1.91 ERA with at least seven strikeouts in all of them.
Morton has also gone at least seven innings with zero runs allowed in three of those outings. Expect another strong performance in a revenge spot against the Rays, who declined his team option and let him walk in free agency this past offseason.
Brewers-Reds under (TBD)
July 17, 7:10 p.m.
Saturday's matchup features an under bettor's dream combination of two frontline arms facing lineups that can't seem to get anything going.
Brandon Woodruff is a true ace in this matchup, boasting a 2.06 ERA with 14 quality starts in 18 appearances this season. And while Luis Castillo got off to a rough start this year, he's turned that around with a 1.97 ERA in June and July - during a stretch when many of his peers have faltered.
The Reds' offense has combined for 12 runs across its last four games, while the Brewers have plated three or fewer runs in six of their previous eight contests. These two pitchers combined for an easy under when they faced off before the break and should be good for another in the rematch.
Red Sox over (TBD) at Yankees
July 18, 7:08 p.m.
Assuming the Yankees and Red Sox play as scheduled Sunday, this could be a particularly tough spot for Gerrit Cole. New York's ace endured a miserable six-start stretch during which he posted a 5.24 ERA with just 38 strikeouts across 34 1/3 innings. Then he rebounded in a big way with a masterful 129-pitch, three-hit shutout against the Astros last Saturday.
Even with the extra rest, he's likely to feel the effects of that start Sunday. The last two times Cole threw more than 105 pitches in a start, he allowed a combined 10 runs through 10 innings - the last one coming against this very Boston lineup. Be wary of buying back on the Yankees' ace here.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.