MLB Tuesday best bets: Back Trevor Rogers as underdog vs. Cardinals
We went 2-1 with our MLB picks on Monday, extending our record to 26-11-1 since early in the season.
Here are our best bets for Tuesday.
Tigers-Royals under 8.5 (-110)
Don't quit on Casey Mize just yet. After an uninspiring start to his MLB career, the Tigers' former top prospect seems to have found his groove over the past month while posting a quality start in seven of his last eight appearances, with six-plus strikeouts in each of the past five.
Conversely, Royals lefty Mike Minor is coming off his best start of the season after throwing seven innings of one-run ball with eight punchouts and just four baserunners allowed. It was the fourth time over his last six starts that he's allowed two or fewer runs while also fanning seven-plus batters.
Neither offense should worry under bettors, and these two pitchers are certainly worth betting.
Reds-Brewers 1st 5 innings over 5 (even)
Reds ace Luis Castillo has looked better over his last few starts after a disastrous beginning to the season. But he still hasn't lasted more than six innings since early April, and Castillo is coming off allowing three runs over 5 2/3 innings to the Brewers.
The issues for Castillo have come early. His 13.15 ERA in the first inning is a godsend for first-five under bettors, while his 11.25 ERA in the fourth inning - often the second turn for many batters - is a sight for sore eyes. On the other side, Brett Anderson is perfect in the sixth or later, but he owns a 5.26 ERA through the first five frames.
Marlins (+105) vs. Cardinals
Do you dare bet against Trevor Rogers? The surprise Marlins ace has been among the league's most dependable starters, helping his team to an 8-5 record overall during his career starts, and a 3-3 mark as underdogs.
The 23-year-old's raw stuff has been a key reason for his success. Rogers ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA (2.90), xwOBA (.272), and whiff rate (32.3%) due to a nasty heater he uses almost 60% of the time. He pairs it with a devastating changeup and wipeout slider that each boast whiff rates north of 30%.
The Cardinals' lineup is among the league's worst at generating runs against fastballs, which is a potential recipe for disaster Tuesday. Take the plus-money on a favorable matchup for the Marlins.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.