MLB Monday best bets: Back Glasnow, Lynn in star-studded pitcher's duel
Another perfect weekend brings our record to 24-10-1 dating back to the early weeks of the season with roughly 60% of the campaign still ahead.
Here are our best bets for Monday.
Cubs-Mets over 9 (+105)
It's almost hard to believe this total is in the single digits given how poorly both starters have performed leading up to Monday's contest.
Jake Arrieta flashed during a solid outing Wednesday against arguably MLB's worst lineup in the Pirates, which followed a six-start stretch when he posted an 8.28 ERA. The 2015 Cy Young winner notched three or fewer strikeouts in five of those six starts for the Cubs - an alarming sign for a pitcher whose strikeout rate has been trending down in each of the previous six seasons.
Neither pitcher here is good enough to justify a low total, and both lineups can make them pay.
Rays-White Sox under 7.5 (-110)
It's hard to find a matchup more well-suited for the under than this one, which pits an early Cy Young contender against one of MLB's most consistent hurlers over the last three years.
Since June 2, 2018, no pitcher has been more profitable to the under than Lance Lynn, who boasts a 48-24-3 record (66.7%) in that span, and a solid 7-3-1 mark this season alone. His fastball-heavy approach has continued to flummox batters this campaign, with the White Sox righty posting his best ERA (1.23) and xERA (2.59) of the Statcast era.
Conversely, Tyler Glasnow has fanned eight-plus batters in 10 of his 13 starts this year for the Rays, which includes an 11-strikeout effort over seven innings of one-run ball in a 3-1 victory over the Nationals on Tuesday.
Expect these two top arms to combine for another pitcher's duel on Monday.
Twins-Mariners 1st 5 innings over 4 (-120)
Maeda has allowed three-plus runs in each of his last three starts despite lasting five or fewer innings each time. A key issue has been the second inning, when he's allowed 12 earned runs on 21 hits over his last nine outings. The Twins ace has posted a 6.67 ERA in the first three innings compared to a mere 2.87 ERA in the following three.
Gonzales has shown similar tendencies while producing a 6.12 ERA in the first five innings and then working four flawless innings in the later stretches of games. The Mariners lefty allowed four runs in just four innings against the hapless Tigers on Tuesday while working his way back from a forearm injury.