MLB weekly betting preview: Fade Dodgers after Sunday collapse
We're riding high after a 2-0-1 weekend on our MLB picks, with the Padres' three-run ninth inning while the game was out of reach standing in the way of a perfect 3-0 sweep. Here are our favorite bets entering this week:
Reds (+165) @ Dodgers (-185)
April 26, 10:10 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: Tyler Mahle (1-1, 1.74 ERA) vs. Julio Urias (3-0, 2.81)
This feels like a classic letdown spot for the Dodgers after an epic four-game series with San Diego that featured three one-run games, including Sunday's 11th-inning classic that saw L.A. blow a six-run lead in the final frames. The last five teams to give up a lead of at least six runs went 0-5 in their next contest and were outpaced by 22 runs in those five losses.
Now the Dodgers face the Reds, which have lost seven straight but could end that streak with Mahle getting the call. The 26-year-old righty ranks ninth in ERA and fifth in xERA (2.12) among starters with at least 20 innings, which is supported by a ridiculous 38.8% strikeout rate.
Urias has shown flashes in the early going, too, but that could end against a Cincinnati lineup that leads MLB in xSLG (.513), xwOBA (.360), and xwOBAcon (.439). Translation: The Reds are crushing the ball and shouldn't be catching a price like this with their most effective pitcher on the mound.
Pick: Reds +165
Padres @ Diamondbacks (N/A)
April 27, 9:40 p.m.
Starting pitchers: Chris Paddack (1-2, 3.50) vs. Merrill Kelly (1-2, 7.71)
At a glance, this may not seem like such an obvious over play, save for Kelly's grisly ERA. But Paddack is the real reason to play the over here.
The Padres pitcher has only allowed seven earned runs this year, but he's allowed seven more unearned runs that, ultimately, were the consequence of his poor pitching. Paddack's fastball is getting rocked for the second straight year, which is negating the effectiveness of a plus-changeup. Those two pitches have comprised 95% of his pitch mix, and the results haven't been pretty.
On the other side, Diamondbacks right-hander Kelly has the worst ERA and second-worst xERA (7.20) in the majors among starters with 20-plus innings. The advanced metrics don't suggest a bounce-back, either - particularly not against a San Diego lineup that has plated 18 runs over its last three games.
Pick: Over (TBD)
Tigers @ White Sox (TBD)
April 28, 8:10 p.m.
Starting pitchers: Casey Mize (1-2, 5.23) vs. Carlos Rodon (3-0, 0.47)
Rodon entered this year as the No. 5 starter for the White Sox, but there might not be four pitchers on any team performing as well as Rodon has through the first month of the season.
You know about the no-hitter on April 14, which was a toe away from a perfect game. But in his other two starts, the former No. 3 overall pick has gone 10 innings with just one run, five hits, and a ridiculous 17 punch-outs. Rodon's gone at least 95 pitches in all three starts and should have no trouble shutting down a Tigers lineup ranked dead last in wOBA (.275) and runs per game (3.05).
Pick: White Sox run line (TBD)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.