MLB weekend betting preview: Bet low with Cole, Bieber on mound

We went 2-0 with our picks earlier in the week with one postponement after a .500 record the week before. Here are our favorite bets heading into the weekend:

Padres (+125) @ Dodgers (-145)
April 23, 10:10 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: Yu Darvish (1-1, 2.55 ERA) vs. Clayton Kershaw (3-1, 2.19)

On Thursday, we highlighted some of the best early betting trends through the first three weeks of the season. One of the biggest takeaways was a 42-18-3 record to the under on games with a total below eight, which typically indicate two elite pitchers facing off.

That's certainly the case here. Darvish is pitching as well as ever through four games, posting a 2.90 xERA - his lowest in the Statcast era - with his lowest hard-hit rate (30%) over that span, too. On the other side, Kershaw is among the league leaders once again in walk rate (3.1%) and has kept batters at bay with his wicked slider, which has become his primary pitch behind a 39.4% whiff rate.

These offenses are stellar, but it hasn't mattered in this series. Since the Dodgers' 11-6 win over the Padres on April 16, they've gone five straight games with a combined seven runs or fewer; San Diego has six such games in that span. Expect another low-scoring affair on Friday.

Pick: Under 7

Yankees @ Indians (N/A)
April 24, 6:10 p.m.

Starting pitchers: Gerrit Cole (2-1, 1.82) vs. Shane Bieber (2-1, 2.45)

How low would this number have to be to consider betting the over? Games with a total of 7 are 49-34-4 (59%) to the under since 2018 and have been profitable each of the last four seasons. Games with a total below 6 are 2-0 to the under this season and 6-2 since 2015.

This game may or may not be priced that low, but it's worth betting the under, anyway. Under bettors have cashed in three of Cole's four starts this year, during which he's combined for 39 strikeouts to just three walks. Bieber has 11 punchouts in each of his first four starts, setting an MLB record along the way.

The Yankees and Indians are a combined 21-14 to the under thus far. This pitching matchup begs for another.

Pick: Under (TBD)

Reds @ Cardinals (N/A)
April 25, 2:15 p.m.

Starting pitchers: Luis Castillo (1-1, 6.05) vs. Jack Flaherty (3-0, 3.80)

Castillo is still a top-tier pitcher in the majors, but he hasn't looked like it through his first four starts - especially in the first inning. The Reds ace has allowed 13 runs (10 earned) in the first inning of games thus far and has a 7.50 ERA through the first three innings of his respective starts.

It's been a different story for Flaherty, who has a 3.00 ERA with 14 strikeouts in the first three innings of his four starts, holding opposing bats to a .146 average. His trouble has come later in games, when he owns a 4.82 ERA with just seven Ks through 9 1/3 innings.

Until Castillo works through his early inning woes, it's worth betting on the Cardinals to take advantage and trusting Flaherty to keep Cincinnati's lineup at bay until the later innings.

Pick: Cardinals first five innings (TBD)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.