MLB weekly betting preview: Gibson, Wood face off in unlikely pitcher's duel
Our weekend finale was postponed due to weather, but we went 2-0 on our other picks for yet another perfect weekend. We love the value on the board this week, starting with a potential pitcher's duel on Monday ...
Rangers (+125) @ Giants (-145)
May 10, 9:45 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: Kyle Gibson (3-0, 2.40 ERA) vs. Alex Wood (3-0, 1.96)
This may not look like the pitching matchup you'd expect from a game with a total of just seven runs, but both are playing like studs through the first month of the season. Plus, a friendly park and uninspiring lineups will aid the two in this one.
Gibson's xERA (2.89) and xwOBA (.273) rank just a tick above Wood's xERA (.287) and xwOBA (.272), with both ranking among the top 20% of all starters. The pair have also relied on a sinker to set up filthy breaking stuff - Wood's slider has been responsible for 18 of his 22 strikeouts, while Gibson has a whiff rate north of 40% on his slider and cutter, which combine for nearly 35% of his pitches.
Those arsenals should play well at Oracle Park, which has been the most pitcher-friendly park over the last three years, per Statcast, and is statistically the hardest to hit a home run. The Giants and Rangers don't have the bats to scare you away from playing the under with these two on the mound.
Pick: Under 7
Twins @ White Sox (TBD)
May 11, 8:10 p.m.
Starting pitchers: Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.02) vs. Dylan Cease (2-0, 2.37)
We were all set to bet Maeda on Sunday before rain postponed the Twins game. Still, I'm all in on Maeda after a tough start to the campaign. The 33-year-old's slider - which fueled his 2020 breakout - was finally clicking in his last start, and he ceded zero hits alongside a 42.9% whiff rate on 38 tries with that pitch.
Maeda will have a chance to continue his dominance against a White Sox lineup that has crushed lefties this year but struggled against righties, especially given the roster's decline. Still, don't fade Chicago entirely behind Cease, who spun the two best starts of his career with a combined 13 innings of 4-hit ball with 20 strikeouts and just three walks.
Pick: Under (TBD)
Cardinals @ Brewers (TBD)
May 12, 7:40 p.m.
Starters: John Gant (2-3, 2.15) vs. Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 1.73)
Woodruff has become a must-bet every time he takes the mound, even with a middling offense to support him. The Brewers stud has been the 10th-most profitable starter with at least seven starts ($285 on $100 bets), and he ranks in the top five among qualified starters in ERA (1.73) and FIP (2.21).
In his start, Woodruff may have some help. The Brewers have hit the ball hard, but a crippling strikeout rate (27.2%) has limited their opportunities. Insert Gant, who has been hit as hard as anyone this year and owns an abysmal 25:24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Expect Milwaukee to hang a few runs on the Cardinals starter early and maintain that lead behind Woodruff and a loaded 'pen.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (TBD)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.