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MLB weekend betting preview: Back Rodon, Maeda vs. lackluster lineups

Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Jacob deGrom's scratched start Tuesday ruined our chances at a 3-for-3 week, but we still nailed our other two picks behind the Rays' blowout win Monday and a pitcher's duel Wednesday in Cincinnati.

Here are our favorite bets heading into the weekend.

White Sox (-150) @ Royals (+130)
May 7, 8:10 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: Carlos Rodon (4-0, 0.72 ERA) vs. Brad Keller (2-3, 8.06)

How can you not bet on Rodon at this point? The former top-five pick is finally putting it all together - he owns the AL's best ERA through four starts and boasts an elite strikeout rate (37.9%) behind four pitches with top whiff rates.

The Royals have done a decent job avoiding whiffs in the early going, but their bats still chase as much as any lineup in the majors. They'll need to reverse that trend to support Keller, whose advanced numbers are as uninspiring as his ballooned ERA. He's a prime candidate to get shellacked by a power-friendly White Sox lineup. This one could get out of hand in a hurry.

Pick: White Sox -1.5 (+110)

Nationals @ Yankees (N/A)
May 8, 1:05 p.m.

Starting pitchers: Max Scherzer (2-2, 2.54) vs. Corey Kluber (2-2, 3.03)

Is Kluber back? The 35-year-old righty looked like a lost cause for the better part of two seasons, but his last pair of starts should inspire some optimism for the two-time Cy Young winner.

The Yankees veteran went 6 2/3 innings for the first time in over two years in an impressive April 27 start versus the Orioles. The real gem was Sunday's start against the Tigers when he threw eight innings of two-hit ball with 10 strikeouts - seven courtesy of his filthy changeup.

You know who Scherzer is, though Sunday's nine-inning, nine-strikeout performance was a good reminder of how nasty he can be when he's clicking. Both pitchers face stiffer competition this time around, yet it's still a solid choice to bet low on what will likely be a pitcher's duel.

Pick: Under (TBD)

Twins @ Tigers (TBD)
May 9, 1:10 p.m.

Starting pitchers: Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.34) vs. Matthew Boyd (2-3, 2.27)

The Maeda we've been waiting for all season finally arrived Monday when he held the Rangers to two hits through 5 1/3 innings with eight punchouts. He struggled to control his slider early in the season, but it was unhittable in his last start - allowing zero hits with a 42.9% whiff rate on 38 pitches.

Boyd's slider is still a work in progress. He hasn't allowed a hit on that pitch in his last three starts, but he still isn't missing bats with his signature offering. That leaves him vulnerable to hard contact, which has been his biggest issue in the majors.

Cue the Twins' batters, who lead the league in barrel rate (10.4%) and xwOBAcon (.420) and have crushed fastballs thus far. Boyd's margin for error is thin; expect Minnesota to make him pay.

Pick: Twins (TBD)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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