MLB Opening Day best bets: Back Angels to get off to a fast start
It's been nearly two full calendar years since we've had proper baseball in April, and Opening Day is truly cause for celebration given the uncertainty and absence of normalcy we've endured since last March.
I've watched "Moneyball," "Fever Pitch," and "Field of Dreams" in the past 48 hours to get properly hyped.
With all 30 teams in action on Opening Day, weather permitting, we have plenty to chose from on the betting front.
Rangers (+140) @ Royals (-160)
I know what you're thinking: "If I'm going to lay this much chalk, wouldn't I want to do it with a better team?" Sure, but the Royals are underrated coming into the 2021 season, while the Rangers will compete to be the worst team in MLB.
How bad are the Rangers? Kyle Gibson is their Opening Day starter. He posted the third-worst FIP (5.39) among qualifying pitchers last season to go with the league's second-worst walk rate (4.01 BB/9) and a bottom-10 strikeout rate (7.75 K/9). Gibson's HR/9 rate was also the fifth highest in MLB. So he walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of hard contact, which will have the Royals licking their chops.
Kansas City has been raking all spring. While it's not a spectacular lineup, it's a deep one with very few weak spots. In spring training, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier, Carlos Santana, and Salvador Perez combined for 17 home runs and boasted impressive slash lines, while Whit Merrifield batted .372. The depth pieces also chipped in with strong numbers. Royals hitters should feast on the weakest pitcher taking the mound on Opening Day.
That means plenty of run support for Brad Keller, who is built to frustrate weak lineups like the Rangers'. He doesn't miss many bats, but he has excellent command and induces a ton of soft contact, as evidenced by last season's terrific 52.8 GB% and 2.80 BB/9. It may seem like -160 is a lot to lay with the Royals, but they're going to surprise a lot of people this year.
Pick: Royals (-160)
White Sox (-120) @ Angels (+100)
Everyone's favorite "sleeper" squad begins its season in Anaheim against an Angels team that believes it's finally well positioned to end its postseason drought. And what a pitching matchup we'll be treated to, with Lucas Giolito taking on Dylan Bundy.
Giolito is a popular pick to win AL Cy Young this year, and while he's a phenomenal talent, I'm not fully sold on elevating him into that tier just yet. He finished last season with a 3.48 ERA while pitching one of the easiest schedules of any starter. All 12 of his games were against offenses ranked 19th or lower, and half of those were against teams in the bottom five. Bundy made six starts against lineups better than the toughest one Giolito faced all year and still ranked ninth among starters in FIP (2.95), five spots ahead of Giolito (3.19).
Bundy was also better at both limiting walks and suppressing power, and while he didn't strike out as many batters, he was second only to Jacob deGrom in CSW% (34%), which supports his career-high 27% strikeout rate. Bundy isn't viewed as a legitimate ace because of how long he languished in Baltimore, but he's finally put it all together, and he deserves a lot more recognition for the pitcher he's become.
Not only do the Angels measure up on the mound, they also hold a slight edge on offense. Their hitters have a collective WAR of 22.4, according to FanGraphs, compared to 19.1 for the White Sox. Chicago is also without Eloy Jimenez, leaving a gaping hole in an outfield that lacks depth. His injury puts a lot of pressure on youngster Luis Robert to pick up the slack, but Robert's struggles in the final third of last season carried into spring, where he slashed .214/.279/.339.
Though the White Sox lineup is bursting with potential, there are some legitimate question marks. Meanwhile, the early returns for the Angels look promising. We know Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are going to rake, but a lot of this team's success will hinge on the supporting cast - especially the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton, who really struggled last season.
Well, Ohtani slashed .548/.571/1.032 and Upton .364/.404/.727 in spring training. Things are shaping up nicely for the Angels, who look primed to get off to a quick start in what's a massive season for them.
Pick: Angels (+100)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a good highlights montage, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.